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Serie A predictions: matchweek 9 (27–29 October 2026)

Every Serie A match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 21 Oct 2026, updated 22 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Serie A, matchweek 9: ten matches, played across 27–29 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is AS Roma, 63% to beat Cagliari at home; the most evenly balanced game is Monza v Napoli (Monza 34%, draw 27%, Napoli 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Venezia v Inter, at 3.75; the tightest looks Parma v Udinese, at 2.29.

Going into the round, Inter lead on goal difference from Lazio, both on 19 points, with AS Roma third on 17. The bottom three are Fiorentina (4), Parma (4), Venezia (3).

The numbers this season

Serie A has averaged 2.96 goals a game over 70 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 17% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Sassuolo v LazioTue 27 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Sassuolo 32%, the draw 28% and Lazio 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Lazio to win at 40%. Sassuolo are 13th on 8 points from 7; Lazio are 2nd on 19 points from 7. Sassuolo have won one of their last five; Lazio are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sassuolo wins, draws and Lazio wins.

AS Roma v CagliariTue 27 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes AS Roma 63%, the draw 23% and Cagliari 14%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (13%), 2.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is AS Roma to win at 63%. AS Roma are 3rd on 17 points from 7; Cagliari are 7th on 13 points from 7. AS Roma are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Cagliari have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between AS Roma wins, draws and Cagliari wins.

Torino v ComoTue 27 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Torino 20%, the draw 24% and Como 56%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Como to win at 56%. Torino are 10th on 10 points from 7; Como are 5th on 14 points from 7. Torino have won three of their last five; Como have won three of their last five. Como have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

AC Milan v BolognaWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes AC Milan 52%, the draw 26% and Bologna 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is AC Milan to win at 52%. AC Milan are 4th on 15 points from 7; Bologna are 15th on 5 points from 7. AC Milan are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Bologna have won one of their last five. AC Milan have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Parma v UdineseWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Parma 28%, the draw 29% and Udinese 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Parma are 19th on 4 points from 7; Udinese are 16th on 4 points from 7. Parma have won one of their last five; Udinese have lost all of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Parma wins, draws and Udinese wins.

Venezia v InterWed 28 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Venezia 21%, the draw 20% and Inter 58%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Inter to win at 58%. Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 7; Inter are 1st on 19 points from 7. Venezia have won one of their last five; Inter are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Genoa v JuventusWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Genoa 21%, the draw 25% and Juventus 54%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Juventus to win at 54%. Genoa are 17th on 4 points from 7; Juventus are 8th on 11 points from 7. Genoa have won one of their last five; Juventus have won one of their last five. Juventus have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Monza v NapoliWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Monza 34%, the draw 27% and Napoli 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Napoli to win at 39%. Monza are 14th on 7 points from 7; Napoli are 9th on 10 points from 7. Monza have won two of their last five; Napoli have won two of their last five.

Frosinone v LecceThu 29 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Frosinone 59%, the draw 24% and Lecce 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (12%), 2.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Frosinone to win at 59%. Frosinone are 6th on 13 points from 7; Lecce are 12th on 9 points from 7. Frosinone have won three of their last five; Lecce have won two of their last five.

Fiorentina v AtalantaThu 29 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Fiorentina 29%, the draw 27% and Atalanta 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points from 7; Atalanta are 11th on 9 points from 7. Fiorentina have won one of their last five; Atalanta have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published nine picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.