Parma v Udinese

16th0–020th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Parma		Udinese
8	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	5
3	Corners	6
12	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
316	Passes	447
42%	Possession %	58%
1.20	xG	1.43

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Udinese 42%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.00 – 1.28

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Parma -0.5

2.90Betano · fair 2.60 · qualifies at 2.67+ · 1.54u

Why this price?

Back Parma -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.90 with Betano — Parma must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 45%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.60. The offered 2.90 implies only 34%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.54 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Parma 1.00, Udinese 1.28.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Parma	28.4%	3.52	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-6.3
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.40	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-1.8
Match result	Udinese	42.2%	2.37	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.3%	1.49	1.37 BetVictor	73.0%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.7%	3.06	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.1%	2.50	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.9%	1.67	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.8%	5.04	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.2%	1.25	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.5%	2.15	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.5%	1.87	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	+3.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Udinese favoured against Parma

Our model makes Parma 28% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 29% and Udinese at 42%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Parma against 1.28 for Udinese — a clear edge to Udinese on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Parma and Udinese
Parma		Udinese
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	1-2-8
0.73	Pts / game	0.45
0.82	Goals for / game	1.09
1.55	Goals against / game	2.27
64%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	64%
18%	Clean sheets	9%
45%	Failed to score	36%
1-2-3	Home record	0-1-5
1-0-4	Away record	1-1-3
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Parma · Udinese

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	15.1
3.4	Shots on target	4.4
3.1	Corners	5.8
1.54	Cards	1.25
10.3	Fouls	10.1
38	Possession %	53
0.99	xG	1.15
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
20.4	Shots	14.6
5.9	Shots on target	6.4
7.3	Corners	4.1
1.38	Cards	0.75
11.4	Fouls	9.6
62	Possession %	47
2.21	xG	2.42
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Parma	Metric	Udinese
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	1.09 (better)
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
11.60	Total shots	15.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	5.25 (better)
43.4	Possession %	57.0 (better)
388	Passes	526 (better)
	Tackles
10.60	Fouls	9.75 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Parma wins: 1
Draws: 1
Udinese wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Parma v Udinese0–02026-10-28
Udinese v Parma0–12026-04-18
Parma v Udinese0–22025-11-29

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5