Genoa v Juventus

13th2–07th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Genoa		Juventus
14	Shots	17
2	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	9
5	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
341	Passes	593
37%	Possession %	63%
1.01	xG	1.30

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Juventus 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.69

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Juventus +0.25

1.42Bet365 · fair 1.31 · qualifies at 1.35+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Juventus +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Bet365 — Juventus starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 76% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.31. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Genoa 0.95, Juventus 1.69.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Genoa	20.6%	4.86	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+2.4
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.96	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	-1.1
Match result	Juventus	54.2%	1.85	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+0.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.6%	1.34	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+6.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.4%	3.94	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.1%	2.04	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+9.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.9%	1.97	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-6.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.3%	3.67	5.00 BetVictor	20.0%	+7.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.7%	1.38	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.6%	1.98	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.4%	2.02	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Juventus favoured against Genoa

Our model makes Genoa 21% to win this Serie A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Juventus at 54%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Genoa against 1.69 for Juventus — a substantial edge to Juventus on expected output. A combined 2.64 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Genoa and Juventus
Genoa		Juventus
11	Played	11
4-1-6	W-D-L	5-3-3
1.18	Pts / game	1.64
1.00	Goals for / game	1.36
1.45	Goals against / game	1.09
45%	Over 2.5	27%
55%	BTTS	36%
18%	Clean sheets	45%
27%	Failed to score	18%
3-1-3	Home record	3-1-1
1-0-3	Away record	2-2-2
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Genoa · Juventus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	15.6
3.4	Shots on target	5.1
3.6	Corners	8.1
2.14	Cards	1.38
10.3	Fouls	10.6
42	Possession %	59
0.94	xG	1.36
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.3	Shots	11.8
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
5.1	Corners	4.5
2.14	Cards	1.71
12.6	Fouls	9.5
58	Possession %	41
1.13	xG	0.93
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Genoa	Metric	Juventus
0.80	Goals scored
1.40	Goals conceded
0.88	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target
14.50	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners
45.3	Possession %
387	Passes
	Tackles
10.50	Fouls
2.25	Offsides
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Genoa wins: 1
Draws: 0
Juventus wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Genoa v Juventus2–02026-10-28
Juventus v Genoa2–02026-04-06
Genoa v Juventus0–12025-08-31

Serie A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lazio	11	9	2	0	+16	29	Lazio won 4 of the last 5
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+15	28	Inter won 4 of the last 5
3	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	+21	27	AS Roma won 4 of the last 5
4	AC Milan	11	7	3	1	+10	24	AC Milan won 4 of the last 5
5	Como	11	7	2	2	+8	23	Como won 4 of the last 5
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	+9	20	Frosinone won 3 of the last 5
7	Juventus	11	5	3	3	+3	18	Juventus won 2 of the last 5
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Bologna won 4 of the last 5
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	-5	16	Cagliari won 1 of the last 5
10	Napoli	11	4	3	4	+4	15	Napoli won 1 of the last 5
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	-2	14	Torino won 2 of the last 5
12	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Atalanta won 1 of the last 5
13	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-5	13	Genoa won 3 of the last 5
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	-10	10	Lecce won 1 of the last 5
15	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-8	9	Fiorentina won 1 of the last 5
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Parma won 1 of the last 5
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8	Sassuolo won 0 of the last 5
18	Monza	11	2	1	8	-8	7	Monza won 1 of the last 5
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	-13	6	Venezia won 2 of the last 5
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	-13	5	Udinese won 0 of the last 5