Ligue 1 · Review

Ligue 1 matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Ligue 1 result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 10 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 20 goals (2.22 a game), three home wins, one draw and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in three of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Le Mans v Monaco (1–1), which it had at 25%; the one it rated most likely was Paris Saint Germain's win in Paris Saint Germain v Estac Troyes (1–0), at 73%.

After the round, Paris Saint Germain lead on 23 points, two points clear of Lille, with Paris FC third on 20. The bottom three are Angers (8), Estac Troyes (8), Le Havre (2).

Match by match

Toulouse 3–1 StrasbourgFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Toulouse 36%, the draw 24% and Strasbourg 40%, with Strasbourg favoured; it put Toulouse winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.08–0.57: Toulouse created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 65%, came in. Pick published: Strasbourg 0 at 2.54 (free pick) — lost.

Auxerre 0–1 Paris FCSat 7 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Auxerre 28%, the draw 26% and Paris FC 46%, so Paris FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.75–0.94: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Paris FC to win at 46%, came in. Pick published: Auxerre -0.5 at 3.45 (free pick) — lost.

Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Estac TroyesSat 7 Nov, 20:05

Before kick-off the model had Paris Saint Germain 73%, the draw 16% and Estac Troyes 11%, so Paris Saint Germain winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.10–0.67: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, Paris Saint Germain to win at 73%, came in.

Rennes 1–2 LilleSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Rennes 43%, the draw 23% and Lille 34%, with Rennes favoured; it put Lille winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.59–0.44: Rennes created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 66%, came in.

Angers 0–2 NiceSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Angers 28%, the draw 28% and Nice 44%, so Nice winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.70–1.82: Nice created the better chances. The headline call, Nice to win at 44%, came in. Pick published: Nice +0.25 at 1.72 — won.

Le Havre 0–2 LorientSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Le Havre 23%, the draw 28% and Lorient 50%, so Lorient winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.96–1.47: Lorient created the better chances. The headline call, Lorient to win at 50%, came in.

Le Mans 1–1 MonacoSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Le Mans 31%, the draw 25% and Monaco 44%, with Monaco favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.53–1.02: Le Mans created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in.

Stade Brestois 29 2–0 LyonSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Stade Brestois 29 27%, the draw 24% and Lyon 50%, with Lyon favoured; it put Stade Brestois 29 winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.92–0.70: Stade Brestois 29 created the better chances. The headline call, Lyon to win at 50%, did not come in.

Lens 1–2 MarseilleSun 8 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Lens 50%, the draw 22% and Marseille 28%, with Lens favoured; it put Marseille winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.13–2.25: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 51%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 2.96 goals a game over 90 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.