Toulouse v Strasbourg

12th3–113th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Toulouse		Strasbourg
10	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	1
16	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
443	Passes	496
48%	Possession %	52%
1.08	xG	0.57

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Strasbourg 40%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.70

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Strasbourg 0

2.54Marathonbet · fair 2.30 · qualifies at 2.37+ · 1.68u

Why this price?

Back Strasbourg 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.54 with Marathonbet — Strasbourg to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.30. The offered 2.54 implies only 39%, so the price is 10.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.68 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Toulouse 1.63, Strasbourg 1.70.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+3.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.63	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+4.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.82	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-6.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.5%	2.35	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.5%	1.74	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-6.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.1%	1.51	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.9%	2.95	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-4.1
Match result	Toulouse	36.5%	2.74	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-7.9
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.18	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-2.4
Match result	Strasbourg	39.6%	2.53	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	+9.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Toulouse v Strasbourg: too close to call

Our model makes Toulouse 36% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 24% and Strasbourg at 40%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Toulouse against 1.70 for Strasbourg — almost nothing to Strasbourg on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Toulouse and Strasbourg
Toulouse		Strasbourg
10	Played	10
3-4-3	W-D-L	3-1-6
1.30	Pts / game	1.00
1.50	Goals for / game	1.80
1.40	Goals against / game	2.20
60%	Over 2.5	90%
50%	BTTS	80%
20%	Clean sheets	0%
40%	Failed to score	20%
2-1-2	Home record	2-1-1
1-3-1	Away record	1-0-5
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Toulouse · Strasbourg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.0	Shots	12.2
4.8	Shots on target	4.3
4.3	Corners	2.8
2.67	Cards	1.83
15.2	Fouls	12.5
52	Possession %	50
1.53	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	12.8
3.2	Shots on target	5.3
3.3	Corners	3.3
2.00	Cards	2.20
13.8	Fouls	11.7
48	Possession %	50
1.15	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Toulouse	Metric	Strasbourg
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.52 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.86
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
10.50	Total shots	11.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	2.60
51.3 (better)	Possession %	45.4
516 (better)	Passes	460
	Tackles
15.25	Fouls	11.60 (better)
2.00	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Toulouse wins: 3
Draws: 0
Strasbourg wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Toulouse v Strasbourg3–12026-11-06
Strasbourg v Toulouse1–22026-05-03
Toulouse v Strasbourg1–02025-12-06

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5