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Ligue 1 predictions: matchweek 9 (30 October – 1 November 2026)
Every Ligue 1 match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
Ligue 1, matchweek 9: nine matches, played across 30 October – 1 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Paris Saint Germain, 69% to beat Le Havre away; the most evenly balanced game is Estac Troyes v Le Mans (Estac Troyes 36%, draw 25%, Le Mans 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Marseille v Toulouse, at 3.55; the tightest looks Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain, at 2.82.
Going into the round, Lyon lead on goal difference from Paris Saint Germain, both on 14 points, with Lille third on 14. The bottom three are Le Mans (6), Estac Troyes (4), Le Havre (2).
The numbers this season
Ligue 1 has averaged 3.05 goals a game over 65 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 65% of them and both sides scoring in 65%. Home sides have won 45% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Le Havre v Paris Saint GermainFri 30 Oct, 18:00
Our model makes Le Havre 11%, the draw 20% and Paris Saint Germain 69%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (13%), 2.82 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is Paris Saint Germain to win at 69%. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points from 7; Paris Saint Germain are 2nd on 14 points from 7. Le Havre are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Paris Saint Germain have won four of their last five. Paris Saint Germain have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Lille v LensFri 30 Oct, 20:05
Our model makes Lille 28%, the draw 25% and Lens 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Lens to win at 48%. Lille are 3rd on 14 points from 7; Lens are 6th on 13 points from 8. Lille have won three of their last five; Lens have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Lille wins, draws and Lens wins.
Nice v RennesSat 31 Oct, 16:15
Our model makes Nice 28%, the draw 24% and Rennes 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Rennes to win at 48%. Nice are 9th on 11 points from 8; Rennes are 7th on 13 points from 7. Nice have won three of their last five; Rennes have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Nice wins, draws and Rennes wins.
Estac Troyes v Le MansSat 31 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Estac Troyes 36%, the draw 25% and Le Mans 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 7; Le Mans are 16th on 6 points from 7. Estac Troyes have lost all of their last five; Le Mans have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Lorient v Stade Brestois 29Sat 31 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Lorient 50%, the draw 25% and Stade Brestois 29 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Lorient to win at 50%. Lorient are 8th on 11 points from 7; Stade Brestois 29 are 11th on 9 points from 8. Lorient have won three of their last five; Stade Brestois 29 have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Lyon v AngersSat 31 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Lyon 63%, the draw 22% and Angers 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Lyon to win at 63%. Lyon are 1st on 14 points from 7; Angers are 15th on 7 points from 7. Lyon have won three of their last five; Angers have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Strasbourg v AuxerreSun 1 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Strasbourg 53%, the draw 23% and Auxerre 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Strasbourg to win at 53%. Strasbourg are 14th on 7 points from 7; Auxerre are 13th on 9 points from 7. Strasbourg have won one of their last five; Auxerre have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Paris FC v MonacoSun 1 Nov, 16:15
Our model makes Paris FC 35%, the draw 26% and Monaco 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Paris FC are 4th on 14 points from 8; Monaco are 5th on 14 points from 7. Paris FC have won two of their last five; Monaco have won two of their last five. Paris FC have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Marseille v ToulouseSun 1 Nov, 19:45
Our model makes Marseille 48%, the draw 22% and Toulouse 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 47%. Marseille are 10th on 9 points from 7; Toulouse are 12th on 9 points from 7. Marseille have won two of their last five; Toulouse have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.