Lille v Lens

2nd1–011th

20:05 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lille		Lens
16	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	3
10	Corners	2
7	Fouls	14
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
586	Passes	358
62%	Possession %	38%
1.71	xG	0.26

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Lens 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.75

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Lens 0

2.15Bet365 · fair 1.93 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Lens 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — Lens to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 63% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lille 1.29, Lens 1.75.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.2%	1.23	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.8%	5.32	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.6%	1.71	2.07 Betano	48.3%	+10.3
Match result	Lille	27.8%	3.60	2.75 Dafabet	36.4%	-8.6
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-2.1
Match result	Lens	47.7%	2.10	3.00 Betano	33.3%	+14.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.4%	2.41	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.2%	2.77	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+8.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.8%	1.57	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-6.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.4%	1.66	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.6%	2.53	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-3.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lens favoured against Lille

Our model makes Lille 28% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Lens at 48%. The goal projection is 1.29 for Lille against 1.75 for Lens — a clear edge to Lens on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Lille and Lens
Lille		Lens
10	Played	10
6-3-1	W-D-L	4-1-5
2.10	Pts / game	1.30
1.40	Goals for / game	1.70
0.70	Goals against / game	1.50
30%	Over 2.5	80%
50%	BTTS	80%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	20%
3-2-0	Home record	3-0-2
3-1-1	Away record	1-1-3
W2	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lille · Lens

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	11.2
4.3	Shots on target	4.3
4.8	Corners	5.2
2.03	Cards	1.70
12.2	Fouls	13.5
53	Possession %	49
1.33	xG	1.25
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.7	Shots	11.7
3.2	Shots on target	4.8
4.2	Corners	4.8
2.03	Cards	1.50
14.5	Fouls	11.7
48	Possession %	51
1.30	xG	1.41
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lille	Metric	Lens
1.20	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.46	Expected goals (xG)	1.65 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	5.75 (better)
10.25	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	5.50 (better)
53.0 (better)	Possession %	51.5
495	Passes	511 (better)
	Tackles
11.75	Fouls	10.50 (better)
4.00	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	1.75
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lille wins: 2
Draws: 0
Lens wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 0%

Lille v Lens1–02026-10-30
Lille v Lens3–02026-04-04
Lens v Lille3–02025-09-20

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5