Estac Troyes v Le Mans

17th2–015th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Estac Troyes		Le Mans
14	Shots	3
8	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	2
15	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
363	Passes	581
39%	Possession %	61%
2.06	xG	0.22

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Le Mans 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.60

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Le Mans

3.35Marathonbet · fair 3.03 · qualifies at 3.12+ · 1.14u

Why this price?

Back Le Mans to win at 3.35 with Marathonbet.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.03. The offered 3.35 implies only 30%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.14 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Estac Troyes 1.53, Le Mans 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Estac Troyes	36.0%	2.78	2.45 BetVictor	40.8%	-4.9
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.04	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-3.0
Match result	Le Mans	39.3%	2.55	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	+10.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.5%	1.21	1.32 BetVictor	75.8%	+6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.5%	5.72	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-10.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.6%	1.65	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.4%	2.54	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-12.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.2%	2.62	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+8.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.8%	1.62	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-9.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.1%	1.58	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.9%	2.71	2.20 Betano	45.5%	-8.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Estac Troyes v Le Mans: too close to call

Our model makes Estac Troyes 36% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Le Mans at 39%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Estac Troyes against 1.60 for Le Mans — almost nothing to Le Mans on expected output. A combined 3.13 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Estac Troyes and Le Mans
Estac Troyes		Le Mans
10	Played	10
2-2-6	W-D-L	1-5-4
0.80	Pts / game	0.80
0.70	Goals for / game	1.20
1.70	Goals against / game	1.90
30%	Over 2.5	60%
30%	BTTS	80%
30%	Clean sheets	0%
60%	Failed to score	20%
1-1-3	Home record	1-3-1
1-1-3	Away record	0-2-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estac Troyes · Le Mans

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	11.0
3.7	Shots on target	3.2
5.0	Corners	3.0
2.50	Cards	2.67
13.0	Fouls	15.2
37	Possession %	47
1.09	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.2	Shots	12.8
3.2	Shots on target	5.2
3.5	Corners	4.5
2.83	Cards	1.33
13.5	Fouls	10.8
63	Possession %	53
1.38	xG	1.92
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Estac Troyes	Metric	Le Mans
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	2.20
0.93	Expected goals (xG)	1.47 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
13.50 (better)	Total shots	11.50
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	2.50
38.5	Possession %	46.0 (better)
342	Passes	445 (better)
	Tackles
15.50 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.75	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.75
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Estac Troyes wins: 1
Draws: 1
Le Mans wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Estac Troyes v Le Mans2–02026-10-31
Estac Troyes v Le Mans0–22026-01-31
Le Mans v Estac Troyes2–22025-10-03

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5