Paris FC v Monaco

3rd3–17th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Paris FC		Monaco
19	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	2
13	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
514	Passes	655
44%	Possession %	56%
2.19	xG	0.69

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Monaco 39%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Paris FC	34.9%	2.87	2.52 Betano	39.7%	-4.8
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.81	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-1.5
Match result	Monaco	38.9%	2.57	3.05 Dafabet	32.8%	+6.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.57	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.0%	1.85	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.0%	2.17	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.7%	3.16	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.3%	1.46	1.42 BetVictor	70.4%	-2.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.72	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris FC v Monaco: too close to call

Our model makes Paris FC 35% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Monaco at 39%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Paris FC against 1.46 for Monaco — almost nothing to Monaco on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Paris FC and Monaco
Paris FC		Monaco
10	Played	10
6-2-2	W-D-L	4-4-2
2.00	Pts / game	1.60
1.70	Goals for / game	1.30
1.00	Goals against / game	1.10
60%	Over 2.5	40%
50%	BTTS	70%
40%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	10%
4-1-0	Home record	2-2-0
2-1-2	Away record	2-2-2
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Paris FC · Monaco

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	12.7
5.5	Shots on target	4.2
4.0	Corners	4.2
2.83	Cards	2.00
14.5	Fouls	13.5
53	Possession %	56
1.54	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.3	Shots	11.8
3.3	Shots on target	4.7
2.7	Corners	4.5
2.50	Cards	2.03
15.5	Fouls	13.2
47	Possession %	44
1.12	xG	1.48
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Paris FC	Metric	Monaco
1.40	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.28 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.09
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
12.60	Total shots	13.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.75
52.6	Possession %	53.5 (better)
565 (better)	Passes	550
	Tackles
15.80	Fouls	13.25 (better)
1.60	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Paris FC wins: 3
Draws: 0
Monaco wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Paris FC v Monaco3–12026-11-01
Paris FC v Monaco4–12026-04-10
Monaco v Paris FC0–12025-11-01

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5