Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain

18th1–51st

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Le Havre		Paris Saint Germain
14	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	10
5	Corners	3
14	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
303	Passes	777
29%	Possession %	71%
1.91	xG	3.13

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Paris Saint Germain 69%
Likely score: 0-2 13%
Expected goals: 0.72 – 2.11

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Both teams to score — No

2.20Betfair · fair 2.07 · qualifies at 2.17+ · 1.31u

Why this price?

Back both teams to score — no at 2.20 with Betfair — at least one side fails to score.

Our model puts the chance at 55% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.07. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 6.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.31 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Le Havre 0.72, Paris Saint Germain 2.11.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Le Havre	11.0%	9.08	12.00 Bet365	8.3%	+2.7
Match result	Draw	19.8%	5.04	7.50 Bet365	13.3%	+6.5
Match result	Paris Saint Germain	69.2%	1.45	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.7%	1.29	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-10.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.3%	4.48	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+8.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.5%	1.87	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-15.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.5%	2.15	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+15.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.3%	3.20	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-16.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.7%	1.46	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+18.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.3%	2.21	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.7%	1.83	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+10.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris Saint Germain favoured against Le Havre

Our model makes Le Havre 11% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 20% and Paris Saint Germain at 69%. The goal projection is 0.72 for Le Havre against 2.11 for Paris Saint Germain — a commanding edge to Paris Saint Germain on expected output. A combined 2.82 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Paris Saint Germain is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 13%; 0-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 1-1 9%; 0-3 9%

This season

Season records for Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre		Paris Saint Germain
10	Played	10
0-2-8	W-D-L	7-2-1
0.20	Pts / game	2.30
0.90	Goals for / game	2.20
2.20	Goals against / game	1.00
50%	Over 2.5	70%
60%	BTTS	70%
10%	Clean sheets	30%
40%	Failed to score	0%
0-1-5	Home record	3-0-1
0-1-3	Away record	4-2-0
L6	Streak	W7

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Le Havre · Paris Saint Germain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	19.0
5.3	Shots on target	8.4
5.3	Corners	5.0
1.53	Cards	0.86
14.0	Fouls	6.3
47	Possession %	68
1.88	xG	2.42
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	12.3
5.0	Shots on target	4.7
3.5	Corners	3.3
1.83	Cards	2.02
16.8	Fouls	12.3
53	Possession %	32
2.03	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Le Havre	Metric	Paris Saint Germain
1.80	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.58	Expected goals (xG)	3.37 (better)
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	9.80 (better)
16.25	Total shots	21.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	4.20
49.5	Possession %	60.0 (better)
413	Passes	587 (better)
	Tackles
14.50	Fouls	6.80 (better)
1.25	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards	0.40 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Le Havre wins: 0
Draws: 0
Paris Saint Germain wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain1–52026-10-30
Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain0–12026-02-28
Paris Saint Germain v Le Havre3–02025-11-22

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5