Ligue 1 · Review

Ligue 1 matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Ligue 1 result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 3 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 9 (30 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 32 goals (3.56 a game), seven home wins, no draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was Stade Brestois 29's win in Lorient v Stade Brestois 29 (0–2), which it had at 26%; the one it rated most likely was Paris Saint Germain's win in Le Havre v Paris Saint Germain (1–5), at 69%.

After the round, Paris Saint Germain lead on 20 points, two points clear of Lille, with Lyon third on 17. The bottom three are Estac Troyes (8), Le Mans (7), Le Havre (2).

Match by match

Le Havre 1–5 Paris Saint GermainFri 30 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Le Havre 11%, the draw 20% and Paris Saint Germain 69%, so Paris Saint Germain winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-2. Expected goals were 1.91–3.13: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, Paris Saint Germain to win at 69%, came in. Pick published: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 — lost.

Nice 5–2 RennesFri 30 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Nice 28%, the draw 24% and Rennes 48%, with Rennes favoured; it put Nice winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.47–2.66: Nice created the better chances. The headline call, Rennes to win at 48%, did not come in.

Lille 1–0 LensFri 30 Oct, 20:05

Before kick-off the model had Lille 28%, the draw 25% and Lens 48%, with Lens favoured; it put Lille winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.71–0.26: Lille created the better chances. The headline call, Lens to win at 48%, did not come in. Pick published: Lens 0 at 2.15 (free pick) — lost.

Estac Troyes 2–0 Le MansSat 31 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Estac Troyes 36%, the draw 25% and Le Mans 39%, with Le Mans favoured; it put Estac Troyes winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.06–0.22: Estac Troyes created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in. Pick published: Le Mans at 3.35 (free pick) — lost.

Strasbourg 5–1 AuxerreSun 1 Nov, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Strasbourg 53%, the draw 23% and Auxerre 25%, so Strasbourg winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.15–0.50: Strasbourg created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 64%, came in.

Lyon 2–0 AngersSun 1 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Lyon 63%, the draw 22% and Angers 15%, so Lyon winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-0, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.44–0.81: Lyon created the better chances. The headline call, Lyon to win at 63%, came in. Pick published: Lyon -0.75 at 1.48 (free pick) — won.

Paris FC 3–1 MonacoSun 1 Nov, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Paris FC 35%, the draw 26% and Monaco 39%, with Monaco favoured; it put Paris FC winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.19–0.69: Paris FC created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in.

Marseille 2–0 ToulouseSun 1 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Marseille 48%, the draw 22% and Toulouse 30%, so Marseille winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.33–1.92: Toulouse created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 47%, did not come in.

Lorient 0–2 Stade Brestois 29Mon 2 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Lorient 50%, the draw 25% and Stade Brestois 29 26%, with Lorient favoured; it put Stade Brestois 29 winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.78–1.33: Lorient created the better chances. The headline call, Lorient to win at 50%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 3.04 goals a game over 81 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.