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Ligue 1 predictions: matchweek 10 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Ligue 1 match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 10: nine matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Paris Saint Germain, 73% to beat Estac Troyes at home; the most evenly balanced game is Toulouse v Strasbourg (Toulouse 36%, draw 24%, Strasbourg 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Lens v Marseille, at 3.74; the tightest looks Le Havre v Lorient, at 2.36.

Going into the round, Paris Saint Germain lead on 20 points, two points clear of Lille, with Rennes third on 16. The bottom three are Strasbourg (7), Le Mans (7), Le Havre (2).

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 3.03 goals a game over 76 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Toulouse v StrasbourgFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Toulouse 36%, the draw 24% and Strasbourg 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Toulouse are 11th on 10 points from 8; Strasbourg are 16th on 7 points from 8. Toulouse are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Strasbourg are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Toulouse have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Auxerre v Paris FCSat 7 Nov, 16:15

Our model makes Auxerre 28%, the draw 26% and Paris FC 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Paris FC to win at 46%. Auxerre are 12th on 10 points from 8; Paris FC are 6th on 14 points from 8. Auxerre have won three of their last five; Paris FC have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Paris Saint Germain v Estac TroyesSat 7 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain 73%, the draw 16% and Estac Troyes 11%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Paris Saint Germain to win at 73%. Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 20 points from 9; Estac Troyes are 15th on 8 points from 9. Paris Saint Germain have won all of their last five; Estac Troyes have won one of their last five.

Rennes v LilleSun 8 Nov, 14:00

Our model makes Rennes 43%, the draw 23% and Lille 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 86%. Rennes are 3rd on 16 points from 9; Lille are 2nd on 18 points from 9. Rennes have won two of their last five; Lille have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Rennes wins, draws and Lille wins.

Angers v NiceSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Our model makes Angers 28%, the draw 28% and Nice 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Nice to win at 44%. Angers are 14th on 8 points from 8; Nice are 7th on 14 points from 9. Angers have won one of their last five; Nice have won four of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Angers wins, draws and Nice wins.

Le Havre v LorientSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Our model makes Le Havre 23%, the draw 28% and Lorient 50%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (13%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is Lorient to win at 50%. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points from 9; Lorient are 10th on 12 points from 8. Le Havre have lost all of their last five; Lorient have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Le Mans v MonacoSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Our model makes Le Mans 31%, the draw 25% and Monaco 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Le Mans are 17th on 7 points from 9; Monaco are 4th on 15 points from 8. Le Mans have won one of their last five; Monaco have won one of their last five.

Stade Brestois 29 v LyonSun 8 Nov, 16:15

Our model makes Stade Brestois 29 27%, the draw 24% and Lyon 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Lyon to win at 50%. Stade Brestois 29 are 13th on 9 points from 8; Lyon are 5th on 14 points from 8. Stade Brestois 29 have won one of their last five; Lyon have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Lens v MarseilleSun 8 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Lens 50%, the draw 22% and Marseille 28%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 51%. Lens are 8th on 13 points from 9; Marseille are 9th on 12 points from 8. Lens have won three of their last five; Marseille have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Lens wins, draws and Marseille wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.