Ligue 1 · Review

Ligue 1 matchweek 8 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Ligue 1 result from matchweek 8 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 27 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 8 (23–26 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 22 goals (2.44 a game), four home wins, four draws and one away win. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Toulouse v Estac Troyes (0–0), which it had at 24%; the one it rated most likely was Marseille's win in Marseille v Le Havre (4–3), at 52%.

After the round, Paris Saint Germain lead on 17 points, one point clear of Rennes, with Lille third on 15. The bottom three are Strasbourg (7), Estac Troyes (5), Le Havre (2).

Match by match

Stade Brestois 29 1–2 NiceFri 23 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Stade Brestois 29 45%, the draw 25% and Nice 30%, with Stade Brestois 29 favoured; it put Nice winning at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.57–0.50: Stade Brestois 29 created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in. Pick published: Stade Brestois 29 -0.25 at 1.95 (free pick) — lost.

Lens 2–1 Paris FCSat 24 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Lens 48%, the draw 25% and Paris FC 27%, so Lens winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.10–0.44: Lens created the better chances. The headline call, Lens to win at 48%, came in.

Monaco 1–1 LilleSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Monaco 45%, the draw 25% and Lille 30%, with Monaco favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.24–0.71: Monaco created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.

Angers 0–0 LorientSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Angers 23%, the draw 27% and Lorient 50%, with Lorient favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.35–0.63: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Lorient to win at 50%, did not come in. Pick published: Lorient 0 at 1.88 — void.

Auxerre 1–1 Le MansSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Auxerre 30%, the draw 26% and Le Mans 44%, with Le Mans favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.32–1.34: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in. Pick published: Auxerre -0.75 at 2.31 — lost.

Marseille 4–3 Le HavreSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Marseille 52%, the draw 26% and Le Havre 22%, so Marseille winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.63–3.22: Le Havre created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Marseille to win at 52%, came in.

Rennes 3–0 StrasbourgSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Rennes 41%, the draw 22% and Strasbourg 37%, so Rennes winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.00–0.94: Rennes created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 52%, did not come in. Pick published: Rennes -0.75 at 1.92 (free pick) — won.

Toulouse 0–0 Estac TroyesSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Toulouse 42%, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 34%, with Toulouse favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.88–0.41: Toulouse created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, did not come in.

Paris Saint Germain 2–0 LyonMon 26 Oct, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had Paris Saint Germain 51%, the draw 24% and Lyon 24%, so Paris Saint Germain winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.04–0.71: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, Paris Saint Germain to win at 51%, came in.

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.