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Ligue 1 predictions: matchweek 8 (23–25 October 2026)

Every Ligue 1 match in matchweek 8 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 17 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 8: nine matches, played across 23–25 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Marseille, 52% to beat Le Havre at home; the most evenly balanced game is Rennes v Strasbourg (Rennes 41%, draw 22%, Strasbourg 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Rennes v Strasbourg, at 3.79; the tightest looks Angers v Lorient, at 2.42.

Going into the round, Paris Saint Germain lead on goal difference from Lille, both on 14 points, with Monaco third on 14. The bottom three are Auxerre (6), Estac Troyes (4), Le Havre (2).

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 2.93 goals a game over 58 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 43% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Stade Brestois 29 v NiceFri 23 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Stade Brestois 29 45%, the draw 25% and Nice 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Stade Brestois 29 to win at 45%. Stade Brestois 29 are 8th on 9 points from 7; Nice are 11th on 8 points from 6. Stade Brestois 29 have won two of their last five; Nice have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Toulouse v Estac TroyesSat 24 Oct, 16:15

Our model makes Toulouse 42%, the draw 24% and Estac Troyes 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Toulouse are 9th on 9 points from 7; Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 7. Toulouse have won two of their last five; Estac Troyes have lost all of their last five.

Lens v Paris FCSat 24 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Lens 48%, the draw 25% and Paris FC 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Lens to win at 48%. Lens are 7th on 10 points from 7; Paris FC are 6th on 11 points from 6. Lens have won two of their last five; Paris FC have won three of their last five. Lens have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Monaco v LilleSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Monaco 45%, the draw 25% and Lille 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Monaco are 3rd on 14 points from 6; Lille are 2nd on 14 points from 7. Monaco are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Lille have won three of their last five. Lille have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Angers v LorientSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Our model makes Angers 23%, the draw 27% and Lorient 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Lorient to win at 50%. Angers are 13th on 7 points from 6; Lorient are 10th on 8 points from 6. Angers have won two of their last five; Lorient have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Angers wins, draws and Lorient wins.

Auxerre v Le MansSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Our model makes Auxerre 30%, the draw 26% and Le Mans 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Auxerre are 16th on 6 points from 6; Le Mans are 15th on 6 points from 7. Auxerre have won two of their last five; Le Mans have won one of their last five.

Marseille v Le HavreSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Our model makes Marseille 52%, the draw 26% and Le Havre 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Marseille to win at 52%. Marseille are 14th on 6 points from 6; Le Havre are 18th on 2 points from 6. Marseille have won one of their last five; Le Havre are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Marseille have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Rennes v StrasbourgSun 25 Oct, 16:15

Our model makes Rennes 41%, the draw 22% and Strasbourg 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 52%. Rennes are 4th on 13 points from 6; Strasbourg are 12th on 7 points from 7. Rennes have won four of their last five; Strasbourg have won one of their last five. Rennes have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Paris Saint Germain v LyonSun 25 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain 51%, the draw 24% and Lyon 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Paris Saint Germain to win at 51%. Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 14 points from 7; Lyon are 5th on 11 points from 6. Paris Saint Germain have won four of their last five; Lyon have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Paris Saint Germain wins, draws and Lyon wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published six picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.