Ligue 1 · Review

Ligue 1 matchweek 7 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Ligue 1 result from matchweek 7 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 19 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Ligue 1, matchweek 7 (16–18 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 35 goals (3.89 a game), three home wins, one draw and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the nine and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Lille v Stade Brestois 29 (1–1), which it had at 24%; the one it rated most likely was Lyon's win in Lyon v Nice (2–1), at 60%.

After the round, Lyon lead on goal difference from Paris Saint Germain, both on 14 points, with Paris FC third on 14. The bottom three are Le Mans (6), Estac Troyes (4), Le Havre (2).

Match by match

Le Mans 0–3 ToulouseFri 16 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Le Mans 49%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 27%, with Le Mans favoured; it put Toulouse winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.98–1.83: Toulouse created the better chances. The headline call, Le Mans to win at 49%, did not come in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 3.00 — lost.

Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Strasbourg 26%, the draw 23% and Paris Saint Germain 50%, so Paris Saint Germain winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.55–2.75: Paris Saint Germain created the better chances. The headline call, Paris Saint Germain to win at 50%, came in.

Estac Troyes 1–3 LensSat 17 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Estac Troyes 28%, the draw 22% and Lens 50%, so Lens winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.27–1.45: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Lens to win at 50%, came in.

Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29Sat 17 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Lille 52%, the draw 24% and Stade Brestois 29 25%, with Lille favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.25–0.84: Lille created the better chances. The headline call, Lille to win at 52%, did not come in.

Angers 2–5 MarseilleSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Angers 25%, the draw 25% and Marseille 50%, so Marseille winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.21–2.71: Marseille created the better chances. The headline call, Marseille to win at 50%, came in.

Le Havre 1–3 AuxerreSun 18 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Le Havre 35%, the draw 30% and Auxerre 34%, with Le Havre favoured; it put Auxerre winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.48–2.76: Auxerre created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Le Havre -0.5 at 2.42 — lost.

Lorient 1–0 MonacoSun 18 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Lorient 37%, the draw 26% and Monaco 37%, so Lorient winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.78–0.63: Lorient created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: Lorient 0 at 2.66 (free pick) — won.

Paris FC 4–3 RennesSun 18 Oct, 16:15

Before kick-off the model had Paris FC 45%, the draw 25% and Rennes 30%, so Paris FC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.62–3.35: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in.

Lyon 2–1 NiceSun 18 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Lyon 60%, the draw 24% and Nice 16%, so Lyon winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.59–1.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Lyon to win at 60%, came in.

The numbers this season

Ligue 1 has averaged 3.05 goals a game over 63 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 63% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 24% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.