Le Havre v Auxerre

18th1–314th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Le Havre		Auxerre
15	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	6
7	Corners	4
16	Fouls	22
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
417	Passes	407
52%	Possession %	48%
1.48	xG	2.76

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Le Havre 35%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.11

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Le Havre -0.5

2.42Bet365 · fair 2.17 · qualifies at 2.24+ · 1.99u

Why this price?

Back Le Havre -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.42 with Bet365 — Le Havre must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.42 implies only 41%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.99 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Le Havre 1.12, Auxerre 1.11.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Le Havre	35.2%	2.84	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-5.3
Match result	Draw	30.5%	3.28	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+2.7
Match result	Auxerre	34.3%	2.92	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.1%	1.51	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.9%	2.95	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.5%	2.60	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-13.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.5%	1.63	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.7%	5.36	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-12.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.3%	1.23	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.0%	2.17	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	-13.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.0%	1.85	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+7.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Le Havre v Auxerre: too close to call

Our model makes Le Havre 35% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 30% and Auxerre at 34%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Le Havre against 1.11 for Auxerre — almost nothing to Le Havre on expected output. A combined 2.23 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 12%; 1-0 11%; 0-1 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Le Havre and Auxerre
Le Havre		Auxerre
10	Played	10
0-2-8	W-D-L	3-1-6
0.20	Pts / game	1.00
0.90	Goals for / game	1.30
2.20	Goals against / game	2.40
50%	Over 2.5	70%
60%	BTTS	80%
10%	Clean sheets	10%
40%	Failed to score	10%
0-1-5	Home record	2-1-2
0-1-3	Away record	1-0-4
L6	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Le Havre · Auxerre

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	10.3
5.3	Shots on target	4.0
5.3	Corners	4.2
1.53	Cards	2.03
14.0	Fouls	18.2
47	Possession %	45
1.88	xG	1.34
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	14.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.8
3.5	Corners	5.5
1.83	Cards	1.50
16.8	Fouls	13.0
53	Possession %	55
2.03	xG	1.64
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Le Havre	Metric	Auxerre
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.76 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.31
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	5.25 (better)
17.00 (better)	Total shots	12.50
	Touches in opp. box
5.25	Corners	5.75 (better)
50.5 (better)	Possession %	44.5
422 (better)	Passes	375
	Tackles
14.25	Fouls	13.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Le Havre wins: 1
Draws: 1
Auxerre wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Le Havre v Auxerre1–32026-10-18
Le Havre v Auxerre1–12026-04-05
Auxerre v Le Havre0–12025-10-26

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5