Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain

13th1–31st

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Strasbourg		Paris Saint Germain
17	Shots	18
8	Shots on target	7
3	Corners	6
12	Fouls	6
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
246	Passes	672
27%	Possession %	73%
1.55	xG	2.75

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Paris Saint Germain 50%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.92

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Strasbourg	26.4%	3.79	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+12.1
Match result	Draw	23.2%	4.32	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	+5.3
Match result	Paris Saint Germain	50.4%	1.98	1.44 Betano	69.4%	-19.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.3%	1.19	1.11 Betano	90.1%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.7%	6.38	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.5%	1.57	1.34 BetVictor	74.6%	-11.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.5%	2.74	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+7.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.4%	2.42	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.6%	1.71	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.7%	1.57	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.3%	2.76	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris Saint Germain favoured against Strasbourg

Our model makes Strasbourg 26% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 23% and Paris Saint Germain at 50%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Strasbourg against 1.92 for Paris Saint Germain — a substantial edge to Paris Saint Germain on expected output. A combined 3.27 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 7%; 0-1 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg		Paris Saint Germain
10	Played	10
3-1-6	W-D-L	7-2-1
1.00	Pts / game	2.30
1.80	Goals for / game	2.20
2.20	Goals against / game	1.00
90%	Over 2.5	70%
80%	BTTS	70%
0%	Clean sheets	30%
20%	Failed to score	0%
2-1-1	Home record	3-0-1
1-0-5	Away record	4-2-0
L1	Streak	W7

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Strasbourg · Paris Saint Germain

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.2	Shots	19.0
4.3	Shots on target	8.4
2.8	Corners	5.0
1.83	Cards	0.86
12.5	Fouls	6.3
50	Possession %	68
1.17	xG	2.42
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.8	Shots	12.3
5.3	Shots on target	4.7
3.3	Corners	3.3
2.20	Cards	2.02
11.7	Fouls	12.3
50	Possession %	32
1.45	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Strasbourg	Metric	Paris Saint Germain
2.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.01	Expected goals (xG)	1.64 (better)
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	9.00 (better)
11.60	Total shots	24.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
1.80	Corners	5.40 (better)
46.4	Possession %	66.6 (better)
455	Passes	716 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	6.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Strasbourg wins: 0
Draws: 1
Paris Saint Germain wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain1–32026-10-17
Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain1–22026-02-01
Paris Saint Germain v Strasbourg3–32025-10-17

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5