Lorient v Monaco

10th1–07th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lorient		Monaco
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	4
10	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
477	Passes	661
42%	Possession %	58%
1.78	xG	0.63

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Lorient 37%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.45

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Lorient 0

2.66Marathonbet · fair 2.38 · qualifies at 2.46+ · 1.74u

Why this price?

Back Lorient 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.66 with Marathonbet — Lorient to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.38. The offered 2.66 implies only 38%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.74 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lorient 1.46, Monaco 1.45.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	40.7%	2.46	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-6.9
Match result	Lorient	37.1%	2.69	3.40 William Hill	29.4%	+7.7
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.82	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.6
Match result	Monaco	36.7%	2.72	2.11 Dafabet	47.4%	-10.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.3%	1.26	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.7%	4.83	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-5.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.5%	1.80	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.5%	2.25	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-7.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.1%	3.02	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.9%	1.50	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	59.3%	1.69	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	+3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lorient v Monaco: too close to call

Our model makes Lorient 37% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 26% and Monaco at 37%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Lorient against 1.45 for Monaco — almost nothing to Lorient on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Lorient and Monaco
Lorient		Monaco
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	4-4-2
1.50	Pts / game	1.60
0.90	Goals for / game	1.30
0.80	Goals against / game	1.10
30%	Over 2.5	40%
30%	BTTS	70%
60%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	10%
2-1-2	Home record	2-2-0
2-2-1	Away record	2-2-2
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lorient · Monaco

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	12.7
2.3	Shots on target	4.2
4.0	Corners	4.2
1.83	Cards	2.00
12.2	Fouls	13.5
47	Possession %	56
1.20	xG	1.26
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	11.8
4.7	Shots on target	4.7
4.5	Corners	4.5
2.50	Cards	2.03
15.0	Fouls	13.2
53	Possession %	44
0.86	xG	1.48
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lorient	Metric	Monaco
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.05	Expected goals (xG)	1.17 (better)
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
10.00	Total shots	10.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.40	Corners	3.25 (better)
48.0	Possession %	49.0 (better)
500	Passes	524 (better)
	Tackles
9.40 (better)	Fouls	11.00
0.60 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.25 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lorient wins: 3
Draws: 0
Monaco wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Lorient v Monaco1–02026-10-18
Monaco v Lorient1–32026-01-16
Lorient v Monaco3–12025-09-27

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5