Ligue 1 · Preview
Ligue 1 predictions: matchweek 7 (16–18 October 2026)
Every Ligue 1 match in matchweek 7 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
Ligue 1, matchweek 7: nine matches, played across 16–18 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Lyon, 60% to beat Nice at home; the most evenly balanced game is Lorient v Monaco (Lorient 37%, draw 26%, Monaco 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Estac Troyes v Lens, at 3.63; the tightest looks Le Havre v Auxerre, at 2.23.
Going into the round, Monaco lead on 14 points, one point clear of Lille, with Rennes third on 13. The bottom three are Auxerre (6), Estac Troyes (4), Le Havre (2).
The numbers this season
Ligue 1 has averaged 2.91 goals a game over 54 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
Match by match
Le Mans v ToulouseFri 16 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Le Mans 49%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.14 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. Le Mans are 14th on 6 points from 6; Toulouse are 15th on 6 points from 6. Le Mans have won one of their last five; Toulouse have won one of their last five.
Strasbourg v Paris Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 16:15
Our model makes Strasbourg 26%, the draw 23% and Paris Saint Germain 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Paris Saint Germain to win at 50%. Strasbourg are 11th on 7 points from 6; Paris Saint Germain are 6th on 11 points from 6. Strasbourg have won two of their last five; Paris Saint Germain have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Estac Troyes v LensSat 17 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Estac Troyes 28%, the draw 22% and Lens 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Lens to win at 50%. Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 6; Lens are 10th on 7 points from 6. Estac Troyes have won one of their last five; Lens have won one of their last five.
Lille v Stade Brestois 29Sat 17 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Lille 52%, the draw 24% and Stade Brestois 29 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Lille to win at 52%. Lille are 2nd on 13 points from 6; Stade Brestois 29 are 7th on 8 points from 6. Lille have won three of their last five; Stade Brestois 29 have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Angers v MarseilleSun 18 Oct, 14:00
Our model makes Angers 25%, the draw 25% and Marseille 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Marseille to win at 50%. Angers are 12th on 7 points from 6; Marseille are 13th on 6 points from 6. Angers have won two of their last five; Marseille have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Le Havre v AuxerreSun 18 Oct, 16:15
Our model makes Le Havre 35%, the draw 30% and Auxerre 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.23 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Le Havre are 18th on 2 points from 6; Auxerre are 16th on 6 points from 6. Le Havre are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Auxerre have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Lorient v MonacoSun 18 Oct, 16:15
Our model makes Lorient 37%, the draw 26% and Monaco 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Lorient are 8th on 8 points from 6; Monaco are 1st on 14 points from 6. Lorient have won two of their last five; Monaco are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Lorient have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Paris FC v RennesSun 18 Oct, 16:15
Our model makes Paris FC 45%, the draw 25% and Rennes 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Paris FC are 5th on 11 points from 6; Rennes are 3rd on 13 points from 6. Paris FC have won three of their last five; Rennes have won four of their last five. Rennes have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Lyon v NiceSun 18 Oct, 19:45
Our model makes Lyon 60%, the draw 24% and Nice 16%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (12%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Lyon to win at 60%. Lyon are 4th on 11 points from 6; Nice are 9th on 8 points from 6. Lyon have won two of their last five; Nice have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Lyon wins, draws and Nice wins.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
The model has published three picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
The fixtures now
The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
Ligue 19Prediction
3 more member picks on these matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →
Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.