Le Havre v Lorient

18th0–210th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Le Havre		Lorient
21	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
5	Corners	0
16	Fouls	19
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
498	Passes	437
54%	Possession %	46%
0.96	xG	1.47

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 21%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Lorient 50%
Likely score: 0-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.90 – 1.46

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Le Havre	22.5%	4.44	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-10.3
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.60	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-1.6
Match result	Lorient	49.7%	2.01	2.62 Betano	38.2%	+11.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	68.9%	1.45	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	31.1%	3.21	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	41.9%	2.38	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-5.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	58.1%	1.72	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.3%	4.70	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.7%	1.27	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.1%	2.17	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-9.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.9%	1.86	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+5.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lorient favoured against Le Havre

Our model makes Le Havre 23% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Lorient at 50%. The goal projection is 0.90 for Le Havre against 1.46 for Lorient — a substantial edge to Lorient on expected output. A combined 2.36 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 13%; 1-1 13%; 0-2 10%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Le Havre and Lorient
Le Havre		Lorient
10	Played	10
0-2-8	W-D-L	4-3-3
0.20	Pts / game	1.50
0.90	Goals for / game	0.90
2.20	Goals against / game	0.80
50%	Over 2.5	30%
60%	BTTS	30%
10%	Clean sheets	60%
40%	Failed to score	30%
0-1-5	Home record	2-1-2
0-1-3	Away record	2-2-1
L6	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Le Havre · Lorient

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	9.5
5.3	Shots on target	2.3
5.3	Corners	4.0
1.53	Cards	1.83
14.0	Fouls	12.2
47	Possession %	47
1.88	xG	1.20
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	14.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.7
3.5	Corners	4.5
1.83	Cards	2.50
16.8	Fouls	15.0
53	Possession %	53
2.03	xG	0.86
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Le Havre	Metric	Lorient
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.80	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.97 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.96
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
17.00 (better)	Total shots	9.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.00
45.3 (better)	Possession %	44.8
395	Passes	477 (better)
	Tackles
13.25	Fouls	10.20 (better)
1.75	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Le Havre wins: 1
Draws: 1
Lorient wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Le Havre v Lorient0–22026-11-08
Lorient v Le Havre0–22026-05-17
Le Havre v Lorient1–12025-09-21

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5