Stade Brestois 29 v Lyon

9th2–05th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Lyon
13	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
1	Corners	8
14	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
313	Passes	664
31%	Possession %	69%
1.92	xG	0.70

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Lyon 50%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.85

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Stade Brestois 29	26.6%	3.75	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	-8.1
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.21	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-4.8
Match result	Lyon	49.6%	2.02	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+10.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.8%	1.21	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.0%	1.64	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+8.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.0%	2.57	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-9.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	38.7%	2.58	3.25 Betano	30.8%	+7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.1%	2.63	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.2%	5.81	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.3%	1.63	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-9.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.9%	1.61	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+3.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lyon favoured against Stade Brestois 29

Our model makes Stade Brestois 29 27% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 24% and Lyon at 50%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.85 for Lyon — a substantial edge to Lyon on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon
Stade Brestois 29		Lyon
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	5-2-3
1.50	Pts / game	1.70
1.80	Goals for / game	1.50
1.20	Goals against / game	0.90
60%	Over 2.5	40%
70%	BTTS	40%
20%	Clean sheets	40%
10%	Failed to score	30%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-0
2-2-1	Away record	1-1-3
W2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Stade Brestois 29 · Lyon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	12.7
5.0	Shots on target	5.0
2.6	Corners	4.0
1.43	Cards	1.53
13.6	Fouls	11.8
44	Possession %	52
1.73	xG	1.60
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	13.0
3.3	Shots on target	5.7
6.1	Corners	5.8
2.06	Cards	2.03
12.1	Fouls	11.5
56	Possession %	48
1.26	xG	1.36
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Stade Brestois 29	Metric	Lyon
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.88 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.24
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.00 (better)	Total shots	9.60
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.60 (better)
46.5	Possession %	47.8 (better)
425	Passes	461 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	8.40 (better)
0.75	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Stade Brestois 29 wins: 1
Draws: 1
Lyon wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5