Lens v Marseille

11th1–24th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lens		Marseille
13	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	5
4	Corners	6
15	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
457	Passes	647
41%	Possession %	59%
2.13	xG	2.25

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Lens 50%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.15 – 1.60

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.2%	3.42	2.70 William Hill	37.0%	-7.8
Match result	Lens	50.0%	2.00	2.35 Betano	42.6%	+7.5
Match result	Draw	21.6%	4.64	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-4.1
Match result	Marseille	28.4%	3.52	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.1%	1.12	1.22 Betano	82.0%	+7.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.9%	9.21	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.1%	1.39	1.72 Betano	58.1%	+14.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.9%	3.59	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-9.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.4%	1.95	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+15.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.6%	2.06	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-17.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.8%	1.41	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	+6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lens favoured against Marseille

Our model makes Lens 50% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 22% and Marseille at 28%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Lens against 1.60 for Marseille — a substantial edge to Lens on expected output. A combined 3.74 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 6%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Lens and Marseille
Lens		Marseille
10	Played	10
4-1-5	W-D-L	6-0-4
1.30	Pts / game	1.80
1.70	Goals for / game	2.20
1.50	Goals against / game	1.40
80%	Over 2.5	60%
80%	BTTS	50%
0%	Clean sheets	30%
20%	Failed to score	20%
3-0-2	Home record	3-0-2
1-1-3	Away record	3-0-2
L2	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lens · Marseille

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.2	Shots	13.0
4.3	Shots on target	4.5
5.2	Corners	4.2
1.70	Cards	1.70
13.5	Fouls	12.2
49	Possession %	53
1.25	xG	1.86
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7	Shots	17.7
4.8	Shots on target	6.0
4.8	Corners	4.2
1.50	Cards	1.83
11.7	Fouls	11.3
51	Possession %	48
1.41	xG	2.12
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lens	Metric	Marseille
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.47 (better)
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
13.40 (better)	Total shots	12.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	5.00 (better)
50.4	Possession %	60.2 (better)
501	Passes	580 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	13.20
0.40 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lens wins: 1
Draws: 0
Marseille wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Lens v Marseille1–22026-11-08
Marseille v Lens3–12026-01-24
Lens v Marseille2–12025-10-25

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5