Angers v Nice

16th0–26th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Angers		Nice
13	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	4
11	Fouls	7
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
523	Passes	501
51%	Possession %	49%
0.70	xG	1.82

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Nice 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.40

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Nice +0.25

1.72Bet365 · fair 1.55 · qualifies at 1.60+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Nice +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.72 with Bet365 — Nice starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 62%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.55. The offered 1.72 implies only 58%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Angers 1.08, Nice 1.40.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Angers	28.2%	3.54	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+0.5
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.57	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+1.3
Match result	Nice	43.8%	2.29	2.07 Betano	48.3%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.4%	1.40	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.6%	3.50	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.0%	2.22	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-12.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.0%	1.82	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.7%	4.21	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.3%	1.31	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+7.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.3%	1.99	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.7%	2.01	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Nice favoured against Angers

Our model makes Angers 28% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Nice at 44%. The goal projection is 1.07 for Angers against 1.40 for Nice — a clear edge to Nice on expected output. A combined 2.48 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Angers and Nice
Angers		Nice
10	Played	10
2-2-6	W-D-L	5-2-3
0.80	Pts / game	1.70
0.90	Goals for / game	1.50
1.90	Goals against / game	1.20
40%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	60%
30%	Clean sheets	20%
50%	Failed to score	30%
1-1-4	Home record	3-2-0
1-1-2	Away record	2-0-3
L2	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Angers · Nice

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.2	Shots	12.5
3.3	Shots on target	5.5
4.0	Corners	4.8
1.92	Cards	3.00
11.0	Fouls	10.5
47	Possession %	47
1.29	xG	1.71
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	14.0
5.7	Shots on target	5.8
5.8	Corners	4.5
1.00	Cards	2.03
10.7	Fouls	9.7
53	Possession %	53
2.09	xG	1.61
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Angers	Metric	Nice
1.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.36	Expected goals (xG)	1.66 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
9.80	Total shots	11.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	5.00 (better)
50.2 (better)	Possession %	47.0
451 (better)	Passes	445
	Tackles
12.40	Fouls	11.20 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	3.60
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	3.40
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Angers wins: 1
Draws: 0
Nice wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Angers v Nice0–22026-11-08
Angers v Nice0–22026-03-14
Nice v Angers0–12025-12-07

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5