Rennes v Lille

8th1–22nd

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rennes		Lille
15	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	2
7	Fouls	15
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
562	Passes	468
56%	Possession %	44%
1.59	xG	0.44

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Rennes 43%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.59

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.9%	3.04	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-8.8
Match result	Rennes	42.8%	2.34	2.36 Dafabet	42.4%	+0.4
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.26	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-3.6
Match result	Lille	33.8%	2.96	3.40 Dafabet	29.4%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.9%	1.17	1.24 Betano	80.6%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.1%	7.07	4.65 Betano	21.5%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.1%	1.51	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+8.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.9%	2.95	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-11.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.3%	2.26	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+7.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.7%	1.79	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.1%	1.49	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+3.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rennes favoured against Lille

Our model makes Rennes 43% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 23% and Lille at 34%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Rennes against 1.59 for Lille — a slight edge to Rennes on expected output. A combined 3.41 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Rennes and Lille
Rennes		Lille
10	Played	10
5-1-4	W-D-L	6-3-1
1.60	Pts / game	2.10
2.10	Goals for / game	1.40
2.10	Goals against / game	0.70
90%	Over 2.5	30%
70%	BTTS	50%
20%	Clean sheets	50%
10%	Failed to score	0%
4-1-1	Home record	3-2-0
1-0-3	Away record	3-1-1
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rennes · Lille

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	11.8
6.2	Shots on target	4.3
6.7	Corners	4.8
2.33	Cards	2.03
11.5	Fouls	12.2
53	Possession %	53
2.26	xG	1.33
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	12.7
6.3	Shots on target	3.2
3.7	Corners	4.2
2.83	Cards	2.03
12.8	Fouls	14.5
47	Possession %	48
2.23	xG	1.30
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rennes	Metric	Lille
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.40	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
2.25 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
17.20 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	3.80
52.2	Possession %	52.6 (better)
479	Passes	503 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	10.00 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rennes wins: 1
Draws: 0
Lille wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Rennes v Lille1–22026-11-08
Rennes v Lille1–22026-03-15
Lille v Rennes0–22026-01-03

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5