Lorient won 3 of the last 5WLDWW10th0–2Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5WWLDW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
15
Shots
12
0
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
2
11
Fouls
16
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
509
Passes
483
52%
Possession %
48%
1.78
xG
1.33
50%
25%
26%
1 · LorientXStade Brestois 29 · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Lorient 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Lorient
49.6%
2.02
2.55 Dafabet
39.2%
+10.4
Match result
Draw
24.6%
4.07
3.25 BetVictor
30.8%
-6.2
Match result
Stade Brestois 29
25.8%
3.87
3.10 Bet365
32.3%
-6.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.25
1.38 Betano
72.5%
+7.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.9%
5.03
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
-11.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.9%
1.76
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
+11.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.1%
2.32
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-12.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.5%
2.90
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+10.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.5%
1.53
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-12.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.6%
1.71
1.85 William Hill
54.1%
+4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.4%
2.42
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-5.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lorient favoured against Stade Brestois 29
Our model makes Lorient 50% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 25% and Stade Brestois 29 at 26%. The goal projection is 1.75 for Lorient against 1.21 for Stade Brestois 29 — a substantial edge to Lorient on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lorient
Metric
Stade Brestois 29
1.20
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
1.16
Expected goals (xG)
1.88 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.20
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
8.80
Total shots
12.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.60
Corners
3.00 (better)
43.0
Possession %
46.5 (better)
460 (better)
Passes
425
—
Tackles
—
9.60 (better)
Fouls
13.00
0.80
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Lorient v 
Stade Brestois 29