Lyon v Angers

5th2–016th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lyon		Angers
22	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	3
16	Fouls	6
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
664	Passes	362
64%	Possession %	36%
2.44	xG	0.81

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Lyon 63%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 1.98 – 0.86

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Lyon -0.75

1.48Bet365 · fair 1.32 · qualifies at 1.36+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Lyon -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.48 with Bet365 — Lyon must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 87%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.32. The offered 1.48 implies only 68%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Lyon 1.98, Angers 0.86.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.3%	1.47	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.1%	1.99	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	-3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.9%	2.01	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+1.1
Match result	Lyon	63.2%	1.58	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-5.8
Match result	Draw	21.9%	4.58	5.20 Betano	19.2%	+2.6
Match result	Angers	14.9%	6.69	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.56	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.0%	1.85	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.0%	2.18	2.47 Betano	40.5%	+5.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.7%	3.15	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-6.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lyon favoured against Angers

Our model makes Lyon 63% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 22% and Angers at 15%. The goal projection is 1.98 for Lyon against 0.86 for Angers — a commanding edge to Lyon on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Lyon is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 1-0 11%; 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Lyon and Angers
Lyon		Angers
10	Played	10
5-2-3	W-D-L	2-2-6
1.70	Pts / game	0.80
1.50	Goals for / game	0.90
0.90	Goals against / game	1.90
40%	Over 2.5	40%
40%	BTTS	40%
40%	Clean sheets	30%
30%	Failed to score	50%
4-1-0	Home record	1-1-4
1-1-3	Away record	1-1-2
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lyon · Angers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	10.2
5.0	Shots on target	3.3
4.0	Corners	4.0
1.53	Cards	1.92
11.8	Fouls	11.0
52	Possession %	47
1.60	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	17.7
5.7	Shots on target	5.7
5.8	Corners	5.8
2.03	Cards	1.00
11.5	Fouls	10.7
48	Possession %	53
1.36	xG	2.09
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lyon	Metric	Angers
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.74 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.62
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	2.60
11.00	Total shots	12.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	5.40 (better)
50.4 (better)	Possession %	49.4
474 (better)	Passes	432
	Tackles
8.20 (better)	Fouls	11.80
0.80	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	1.40
0.25 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lyon wins: 2
Draws: 1
Angers wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Lyon v Angers2–02026-11-01
Angers v Lyon0–02026-04-05
Lyon v Angers1–02025-09-19

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5