Marseille v Toulouse

4th2–012th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Marseille		Toulouse
13	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	3
14	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
479	Passes	611
43%	Possession %	57%
1.33	xG	1.92

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Marseille 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.00 – 1.55

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Marseille	47.9%	2.09	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-2.1
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.45	4.25 Betano	23.5%	-1.1
Match result	Toulouse	29.6%	3.38	3.70 Dafabet	27.0%	+2.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.90	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.8%	1.45	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.2%	3.20	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.3%	2.11	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+5.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.7%	1.90	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.5%	1.46	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.5%	3.17	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-4.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Marseille favoured against Toulouse

Our model makes Marseille 48% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 22% and Toulouse at 30%. The goal projection is 2.00 for Marseille against 1.55 for Toulouse — a clear edge to Marseille on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Marseille and Toulouse
Marseille		Toulouse
10	Played	10
6-0-4	W-D-L	3-4-3
1.80	Pts / game	1.30
2.20	Goals for / game	1.50
1.40	Goals against / game	1.40
60%	Over 2.5	60%
50%	BTTS	50%
30%	Clean sheets	20%
20%	Failed to score	40%
3-0-2	Home record	2-1-2
3-0-2	Away record	1-3-1
W5	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Marseille · Toulouse

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	11.0
4.5	Shots on target	4.8
4.2	Corners	4.3
1.70	Cards	2.67
12.2	Fouls	15.2
53	Possession %	52
1.86	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	12.5
6.0	Shots on target	3.2
4.2	Corners	3.3
1.83	Cards	2.00
11.3	Fouls	13.8
48	Possession %	48
2.12	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Marseille	Metric	Toulouse
1.60	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.50	Expected goals (xG)	1.71 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.50 (better)
12.60 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.75
57.4 (better)	Possession %	50.3
564 (better)	Passes	531
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Marseille wins: 2
Draws: 2
Toulouse wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Marseille v Toulouse2–02026-11-01
Toulouse v Marseille0–12026-03-07
Marseille v Toulouse2–22026-03-04
Marseille v Toulouse2–22025-11-29

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5