Scottish Premiership · Review

Scottish Premiership matchweek 13 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Scottish Premiership result from matchweek 13 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 13 (7–8 November 2026), is complete: six matches, 19 goals (3.17 a game), two home wins, one draw and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in three of the six and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was Falkirk's win in Heart Of Midlothian v Falkirk (2–5), which it had at 25%; the one it rated most likely was Celtic's win in Celtic v Kilmarnock (1–0), at 76%.

After the round, Celtic lead on 31 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Falkirk third on 21. The bottom three are Hibernian (11), Aberdeen (11), Kilmarnock (9).

Match by match

Dundee Utd 1–1 MotherwellSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Dundee Utd 35%, the draw 27% and Motherwell 38%, with Motherwell favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.95–1.77: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 56%, came in.

ST Johnstone 2–1 DundeeSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had ST Johnstone 37%, the draw 24% and Dundee 38%, with Dundee favoured; it put ST Johnstone winning at 37%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.62–0.64: ST Johnstone created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in.

Aberdeen 0–4 HibernianSat 7 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had Aberdeen 33%, the draw 29% and Hibernian 38%, so Hibernian winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.99–2.43: Hibernian created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

ST Mirren 0–2 RangersSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had ST Mirren 18%, the draw 24% and Rangers 58%, so Rangers winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.11–3.35: Rangers created the better chances. The headline call, Rangers to win at 58%, came in.

Heart Of Midlothian 2–5 FalkirkSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Heart Of Midlothian 51%, the draw 24% and Falkirk 25%, with Heart Of Midlothian favoured; it put Falkirk winning at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.01–2.61: Falkirk created the better chances. The headline call, Heart Of Midlothian to win at 51%, did not come in.

Celtic 1–0 KilmarnockSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Celtic 76%, the draw 14% and Kilmarnock 10%, so Celtic winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.29–1.53: Celtic created the better chances. The headline call, Celtic to win at 76%, came in.

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.85 goals a game over 75 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 56%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.