Scottish Premiership · Review

Scottish Premiership matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Scottish Premiership result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 29 Oct 2026, updated 29 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 11 (28 October 2026), is complete: six matches, 19 goals (3.17 a game), one home win, four draws and one away win. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the six and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Celtic v Dundee Utd (2–2), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Dundee's win in Dundee v Kilmarnock (3–1), at 56%.

After the round, Celtic lead on 28 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 20. The bottom three are Motherwell (9), Hibernian (8), Kilmarnock (8).

Match by match

Aberdeen 0–1 FalkirkWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Aberdeen 40%, the draw 28% and Falkirk 32%, with Aberdeen favoured; it put Falkirk winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.72–1.08: Aberdeen created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Aberdeen to win at 40%, did not come in. Pick published: Aberdeen -0.5 at 1.98 — lost.

Celtic 2–2 Dundee UtdWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Celtic 65%, the draw 20% and Dundee Utd 15%, with Celtic favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 1.63–0.93: Celtic created the better chances. The headline call, Celtic to win at 65%, did not come in.

Dundee 3–1 KilmarnockWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Dundee 56%, the draw 20% and Kilmarnock 24%, so Dundee winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.28–2.24: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 53%, came in.

ST Johnstone 2–2 MotherwellWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had ST Johnstone 36%, the draw 28% and Motherwell 36%, with Motherwell favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.48–1.53: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Motherwell to win at 36%, did not come in.

ST Mirren 1–1 HibernianWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had ST Mirren 26%, the draw 28% and Hibernian 46%, with Hibernian favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.80–1.42: ST Mirren created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in. Pick published: ST Mirren -0.5 at 3.45 (free pick) — lost.

Heart Of Midlothian 2–2 RangersWed 28 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Heart Of Midlothian 35%, the draw 25% and Rangers 40%, with Rangers favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.75–2.26: Rangers created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in. Pick published: Heart Of Midlothian -0.25 at 2.68 — half lost.

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.85 goals a game over 66 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.