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Scottish Premiership predictions: matchweek 12 (31 October 2026)

Every Scottish Premiership match in matchweek 12 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 12: six matches, played on 31 October 2026. Our model has published forecasts for five of them so far; the rest follow at least 24 hours before kick-off.

The strongest favourite is Motherwell, 58% to beat ST Mirren at home; the most evenly balanced game is Hibernian v Dundee (Hibernian 43%, draw 25%, Dundee 32%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Falkirk v Celtic, at 3.24; the tightest looks Motherwell v ST Mirren, at 2.66.

Going into the round, Celtic lead on 24 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 16. The bottom three are Motherwell (8), Kilmarnock (8), Hibernian (7).

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 54 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 56%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 39%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Dundee Utd v Heart Of MidlothianSat 31 Oct, 15:00

The forecast for this match is published at least 24 hours before kick-off. Dundee Utd are 6th on 12 points from 9; Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 9. Dundee Utd have won two of their last five; Heart Of Midlothian have won two of their last five. Heart Of Midlothian have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Falkirk v CelticSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Falkirk 22%, the draw 22% and Celtic 56%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Celtic to win at 56%. Falkirk are 9th on 9 points from 9; Celtic are 1st on 24 points from 9. Falkirk have won two of their last five; Celtic have won four of their last five. Celtic have won five of the sides' last five meetings.

Hibernian v DundeeSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Hibernian 43%, the draw 25% and Dundee 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Hibernian are 12th on 7 points from 9; Dundee are 4th on 14 points from 9. Hibernian are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Dundee have won two of their last five. Hibernian have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Kilmarnock v ST JohnstoneSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Kilmarnock 32%, the draw 25% and ST Johnstone 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points from 9; ST Johnstone are 5th on 12 points from 9. Kilmarnock have won two of their last five; ST Johnstone have won two of their last five.

Motherwell v ST MirrenSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Motherwell 58%, the draw 24% and ST Mirren 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (12%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is Motherwell to win at 58%. Motherwell are 10th on 8 points from 9; ST Mirren are 8th on 10 points from 9. Motherwell have lost all of their last five; ST Mirren have lost all of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

Rangers v AberdeenSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Rangers 57%, the draw 24% and Aberdeen 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Rangers to win at 57%. Rangers are 2nd on 20 points from 9; Aberdeen are 7th on 11 points from 9. Rangers are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Aberdeen have won two of their last five. Rangers have won four of the sides' last four meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.