Motherwell v ST Mirren

9th1–08th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Motherwell		ST Mirren
11	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	1
6	Corners	3
17	Fouls	14
4	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
455	Passes	436
52%	Possession %	48%
2.36	xG	0.23

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Motherwell 58%
Likely score: 1-0 12%
Expected goals: 1.78 – 0.88

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

ST Mirren +0.25

3.45Bet365 · fair 3.08 · qualifies at 3.18+ · 1.21u

Why this price?

Back ST Mirren +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — ST Mirren starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 31%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.08. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.21 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Motherwell 1.78, ST Mirren 0.88.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Motherwell	58.1%	1.72	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+4.9
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-0.8
Match result	ST Mirren	17.7%	5.63	4.10 Betano	24.4%	-6.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.9%	1.33	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.1%	3.98	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.6%	2.02	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.4%	1.98	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	+8.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.6%	3.62	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-10.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.4%	1.38	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+7.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.1%	2.04	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-12.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.9%	1.97	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+9.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Motherwell favoured against ST Mirren

Our model makes Motherwell 58% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 24% and ST Mirren at 18%. The goal projection is 1.78 for Motherwell against 0.88 for ST Mirren — a substantial edge to Motherwell on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 12%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Motherwell and ST Mirren
Motherwell		ST Mirren
13	Played	13
3-4-6	W-D-L	4-2-7
1.00	Pts / game	1.08
1.15	Goals for / game	0.92
1.62	Goals against / game	1.69
54%	Over 2.5	46%
46%	BTTS	38%
23%	Clean sheets	23%
38%	Failed to score	38%
2-1-3	Home record	2-2-3
1-3-3	Away record	2-0-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Motherwell · ST Mirren

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	9.5
5.2	Shots on target	3.5
5.3	Corners	3.8
2.00	Cards	3.67
12.5	Fouls	15.3
49	Possession %	52
1.76	xG	1.06
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.5	Shots	14.8
6.0	Shots on target	4.5
6.2	Corners	4.7
2.67	Cards	2.33
9.2	Fouls	16.3
51	Possession %	48
1.54	xG	2.41
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Motherwell	Metric	ST Mirren
0.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
2.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.16 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.12
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
11.60	Total shots	12.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80 (better)	Corners	3.60
54.6 (better)	Possession %	52.2
537 (better)	Passes	461
	Tackles
7.80 (better)	Fouls	13.20
1.75	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Motherwell wins: 3
Draws: 2
ST Mirren wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.80
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 20%

Motherwell v ST Mirren1–02026-10-31
ST Mirren v Motherwell3–32026-08-30
ST Mirren v Motherwell0–52026-02-21
Motherwell v ST Mirren2–02026-01-03
ST Mirren v Motherwell0–02025-08-09

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5