Hibernian v Dundee

10th5th

15:00 UTC

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Hibernian 43%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.68 – 1.42

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Hibernian	43.1%	2.32	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	24.7%	4.04	—	—	—
Match result	Dundee	32.1%	3.11	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.0%	1.22	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.0%	5.57	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.8%	1.67	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.2%	2.49	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.5%	2.67	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.5%	1.60	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.2%	1.61	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.8%	2.65	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hibernian favoured against Dundee

Our model makes Hibernian 43% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 25% and Dundee at 32%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Hibernian against 1.42 for Dundee — a clear edge to Hibernian on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Hibernian and Dundee
Hibernian		Dundee
12	Played	12
3-2-7	W-D-L	5-2-5
0.92	Pts / game	1.42
1.25	Goals for / game	1.50
1.42	Goals against / game	1.25
67%	Over 2.5	67%
75%	BTTS	75%
8%	Clean sheets	17%
17%	Failed to score	8%
0-1-5	Home record	3-2-1
3-1-2	Away record	2-0-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Hibernian · Dundee

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	14.4
3.2	Shots on target	5.6
4.4	Corners	6.0
1.80	Cards	1.60
12.2	Fouls	11.0
56	Possession %	45
1.47	xG	1.53
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.6	Shots	15.6
4.4	Shots on target	5.2
5.6	Corners	4.0
3.20	Cards	2.00
15.6	Fouls	12.4
44	Possession %	55
1.30	xG	1.82
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Hibernian	Metric	Dundee
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.23	Expected goals (xG)	1.50 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
16.25 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	5.20
57.4 (better)	Possession %	39.6
495 (better)	Passes	339
	Tackles
9.75 (better)	Fouls	13.40
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Hibernian wins: 3
Draws: 1
Dundee wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Dundee v Hibernian1–22026-08-30
Dundee v Hibernian3–32026-02-28
Hibernian v Dundee2–02025-11-22
Dundee v Hibernian1–22025-08-03

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5