Falkirk v Celtic

3rd2–01st

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Falkirk		Celtic
6	Shots	24
2	Shots on target	9
0	Corners	14
19	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
262	Passes	598
30%	Possession %	70%
1.06	xG	2.83

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Celtic 56%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.21 – 2.03

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Falkirk	22.0%	4.54	8.00 William Hill	12.5%	+9.5
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.48	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+4.5
Match result	Celtic	55.7%	1.80	1.51 Dafabet	66.2%	-10.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.9%	1.19	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.1%	6.21	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.9%	1.59	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.1%	2.69	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.7%	2.46	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.3%	1.69	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.67 William Hill	59.9%	+1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Celtic favoured against Falkirk

Our model makes Falkirk 22% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 22% and Celtic at 56%. The goal projection is 1.21 for Falkirk against 2.03 for Celtic — a substantial edge to Celtic on expected output. A combined 3.24 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 8%; 0-1 7%; 1-3 7%

This season

Season records for Falkirk and Celtic
Falkirk		Celtic
13	Played	13
6-3-4	W-D-L	10-1-2
1.62	Pts / game	2.38
1.54	Goals for / game	2.15
1.08	Goals against / game	0.77
54%	Over 2.5	54%
62%	BTTS	46%
31%	Clean sheets	38%
15%	Failed to score	15%
3-0-3	Home record	5-1-1
3-3-1	Away record	5-0-1
W5	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Falkirk · Celtic

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	21.8
5.2	Shots on target	8.5
4.0	Corners	9.3
2.33	Cards	2.33
15.3	Fouls	11.0
46	Possession %	60
1.59	xG	2.49
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	10.8
5.5	Shots on target	3.2
7.7	Corners	2.5
1.50	Cards	2.00
10.7	Fouls	10.7
55	Possession %	40
1.88	xG	1.18
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Falkirk	Metric	Celtic
1.40	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.37	Expected goals (xG)	1.94 (better)
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	7.40 (better)
12.60	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	6.20 (better)
44.0	Possession %	52.0 (better)
376	Passes	538 (better)
	Tackles
15.80	Fouls	10.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Falkirk wins: 1
Draws: 0
Celtic wins: 5
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 33%

Falkirk v Celtic2–02026-11-01
Celtic v Falkirk2–12026-08-29
Celtic v Falkirk3–12026-04-25
Celtic v Falkirk2–02026-02-01
Falkirk v Celtic0–12026-01-14
Celtic v Falkirk4–02025-10-29

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5