Scottish Premiership · Review

Scottish Premiership matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Scottish Premiership result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 25 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 10 (24–25 October 2026), is complete: six matches, 20 goals (3.33 a game), four home wins, no draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the six and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was ST Mirren's win in ST Mirren v Dundee (2–1), which it had at 27%; the one it rated most likely was Rangers's win in Rangers v ST Johnstone (4–0), at 53%.

After the round, Celtic lead on 27 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 19. The bottom three are Motherwell (8), Kilmarnock (8), Hibernian (7).

Match by match

Dundee Utd 3–2 AberdeenSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Dundee Utd 39%, the draw 29% and Aberdeen 32%, so Dundee Utd winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.54–1.58: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Dundee Utd -0.5 at 2.20 — won.

Falkirk 3–0 KilmarnockSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Falkirk 48%, the draw 24% and Kilmarnock 28%, so Falkirk winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.08–1.89: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.

Rangers 4–0 ST JohnstoneSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Rangers 53%, the draw 25% and ST Johnstone 22%, so Rangers winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.61–0.61: Rangers created the better chances. The headline call, Rangers to win at 53%, came in.

ST Mirren 2–1 DundeeSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had ST Mirren 27%, the draw 25% and Dundee 47%, with Dundee favoured; it put ST Mirren winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.48–1.50: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Dundee to win at 47%, did not come in.

Hibernian 1–2 CelticSun 25 Oct, 12:00

Before kick-off the model had Hibernian 29%, the draw 26% and Celtic 45%, so Celtic winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.24–1.16: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Celtic to win at 45%, came in.

Motherwell 0–2 Heart Of MidlothianSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Motherwell 35%, the draw 26% and Heart Of Midlothian 39%, so Heart Of Midlothian winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.34–1.12: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Heart Of Midlothian +0.25 at 1.88 — won.

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.82 goals a game over 60 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 43% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.