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Scottish Premiership predictions: matchweek 10 (24–25 October 2026)

Every Scottish Premiership match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 18 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 10: six matches, played across 24–25 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Rangers, 53% to beat ST Johnstone at home; the most evenly balanced game is Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian (Motherwell 35%, draw 26%, Heart Of Midlothian 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Falkirk v Kilmarnock, at 3.17; the tightest looks Dundee Utd v Aberdeen, at 2.39.

Going into the round, Celtic lead on 21 points, one point clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 16. The bottom three are Motherwell (8), Kilmarnock (8), Hibernian (7).

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 53 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 55% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Dundee Utd v AberdeenSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Dundee Utd 39%, the draw 29% and Aberdeen 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Dundee Utd are 6th on 12 points from 9; Aberdeen are 7th on 11 points from 9. Dundee Utd have won two of their last five; Aberdeen have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

Falkirk v KilmarnockSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Falkirk 48%, the draw 24% and Kilmarnock 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Falkirk are 9th on 9 points from 9; Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points from 9. Falkirk have won two of their last five; Kilmarnock have won two of their last five. Falkirk have won three of the sides' last three meetings.

Rangers v ST JohnstoneSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Rangers 53%, the draw 25% and ST Johnstone 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Rangers to win at 53%. Rangers are 2nd on 20 points from 9; ST Johnstone are 5th on 12 points from 9. Rangers are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); ST Johnstone have won two of their last five.

ST Mirren v DundeeSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes ST Mirren 27%, the draw 25% and Dundee 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Dundee to win at 47%. ST Mirren are 8th on 10 points from 9; Dundee are 4th on 14 points from 9. ST Mirren have lost all of their last five; Dundee have won two of their last five. Dundee have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

Hibernian v CelticSun 25 Oct, 12:00

Our model makes Hibernian 29%, the draw 26% and Celtic 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.82 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Celtic to win at 45%. Hibernian are 12th on 7 points from 9; Celtic are 1st on 21 points from 8. Hibernian are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Celtic have won four of their last five. Celtic have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

Motherwell v Heart Of MidlothianSun 25 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Motherwell 35%, the draw 26% and Heart Of Midlothian 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Motherwell are 10th on 8 points from 9; Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Motherwell have lost all of their last five; Heart Of Midlothian have won three of their last five. Three of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.