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Scottish Premiership predictions: matchweek 13 (7–8 November 2026)

Every Scottish Premiership match in matchweek 13 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 31 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 13: six matches, played across 7–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Celtic, 76% to beat Kilmarnock at home; the most evenly balanced game is ST Johnstone v Dundee (ST Johnstone 37%, draw 24%, Dundee 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Celtic v Kilmarnock, at 4.05; the tightest looks Aberdeen v Hibernian, at 2.40.

Going into the round, Celtic lead on 28 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 20. The bottom three are Aberdeen (11), Kilmarnock (9), Hibernian (8).

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.84 goals a game over 68 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 57%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 24% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Dundee Utd v MotherwellSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Dundee Utd 35%, the draw 27% and Motherwell 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Dundee Utd are 5th on 16 points from 11; Motherwell are 9th on 12 points from 12. Dundee Utd are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Motherwell have won one of their last five. Motherwell have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

ST Johnstone v DundeeSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes ST Johnstone 37%, the draw 24% and Dundee 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. ST Johnstone are 7th on 14 points from 12; Dundee are 4th on 17 points from 11. ST Johnstone have won one of their last five; Dundee have won three of their last five.

Aberdeen v HibernianSat 7 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Aberdeen 33%, the draw 29% and Hibernian 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Aberdeen are 10th on 11 points from 11; Hibernian are 12th on 8 points from 11. Aberdeen have won one of their last five; Hibernian are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). Hibernian have won two of the sides' last four meetings.

ST Mirren v RangersSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes ST Mirren 18%, the draw 24% and Rangers 58%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Rangers to win at 58%. ST Mirren are 8th on 14 points from 12; Rangers are 2nd on 24 points from 11. ST Mirren have won one of their last five; Rangers are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Rangers have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Heart Of Midlothian v FalkirkSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian 51%, the draw 24% and Falkirk 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Heart Of Midlothian to win at 51%. Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 20 points from 11; Falkirk are 6th on 15 points from 11. Heart Of Midlothian have won two of their last five; Falkirk have won three of their last five. Heart Of Midlothian have won four of the sides' last five meetings.

Celtic v KilmarnockSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Celtic 76%, the draw 14% and Kilmarnock 10%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Celtic to win at 76%. Celtic are 1st on 28 points from 11; Kilmarnock are 11th on 9 points from 12. Celtic have won three of their last five; Kilmarnock have won one of their last five. Celtic have won four of the sides' last four meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published five picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.