ST Johnstone v Dundee

7th2–15th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
ST Johnstone		Dundee
17	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	5
12	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
580	Passes	439
57%	Possession %	44%
1.62	xG	0.64

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Dundee 38%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.65

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.4%	1.71	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-8.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.5%	1.53	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	+6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.5%	2.90	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-5.5
Match result	ST Johnstone	37.4%	2.67	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	+1.1
Match result	Draw	24.1%	4.15	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-3.7
Match result	Dundee	38.5%	2.60	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+5.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.4%	1.18	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.6%	6.42	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	-7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.7%	1.57	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+7.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.3%	2.75	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-10.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.6%	2.40	2.92 Betano	34.2%	+7.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

ST Johnstone v Dundee: too close to call

Our model makes ST Johnstone 37% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 24% and Dundee at 38%. The goal projection is 1.63 for ST Johnstone against 1.65 for Dundee — almost nothing to Dundee on expected output. A combined 3.28 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for ST Johnstone and Dundee
ST Johnstone		Dundee
13	Played	12
4-5-4	W-D-L	5-2-5
1.31	Pts / game	1.42
1.31	Goals for / game	1.50
1.54	Goals against / game	1.25
54%	Over 2.5	67%
69%	BTTS	75%
8%	Clean sheets	17%
23%	Failed to score	8%
3-3-1	Home record	3-2-1
1-2-3	Away record	2-0-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. ST Johnstone · Dundee

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	14.4
3.0	Shots on target	5.6
2.7	Corners	6.0
1.50	Cards	1.60
10.2	Fouls	11.0
43	Possession %	45
1.17	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	15.6
6.5	Shots on target	5.2
9.3	Corners	4.0
2.17	Cards	2.00
11.8	Fouls	12.4
57	Possession %	55
2.10	xG	1.82
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ST Johnstone	Metric	Dundee
1.00	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.06	Expected goals (xG)	1.76 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
9.80	Total shots	15.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.60	Corners	6.80 (better)
41.6	Possession %	43.8 (better)
385	Passes	389 (better)
	Tackles
10.40	Fouls	10.00 (better)
2.50	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

ST Johnstone wins: 1
Draws: 1
Dundee wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

ST Johnstone v Dundee2–12026-11-07
Dundee v ST Johnstone1–12026-09-02

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5