ST Mirren v Rangers

8th0–22nd

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
ST Mirren		Rangers
11	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	7
7	Corners	4
16	Fouls	22
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
474	Passes	395
55%	Possession %	45%
1.11	xG	3.35

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Rangers 58%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 0.92 – 1.83

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	ST Mirren	18.1%	5.52	8.00 Betfair	12.5%	+5.6
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.21	5.40 Dafabet	18.5%	+5.2
Match result	Rangers	58.1%	1.72	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-11.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.5%	1.31	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.5%	4.26	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-11.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.2%	2.07	2.65 Betano	37.7%	+10.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.6%	3.38	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-11.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.4%	1.42	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.0%	1.96	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-5.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.0%	2.04	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+1.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Rangers favoured against ST Mirren

Our model makes ST Mirren 18% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 24% and Rangers at 58%. The goal projection is 0.92 for ST Mirren against 1.83 for Rangers — a commanding edge to Rangers on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 11%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for ST Mirren and Rangers
ST Mirren		Rangers
13	Played	12
4-2-7	W-D-L	8-3-1
1.08	Pts / game	2.25
0.92	Goals for / game	1.75
1.69	Goals against / game	0.75
46%	Over 2.5	50%
38%	BTTS	50%
23%	Clean sheets	50%
38%	Failed to score	0%
2-2-3	Home record	4-0-1
2-0-4	Away record	4-3-0
L2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. ST Mirren · Rangers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	18.2
3.5	Shots on target	7.0
3.8	Corners	7.0
3.67	Cards	2.00
15.3	Fouls	15.2
52	Possession %	56
1.06	xG	2.71
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	12.0
4.5	Shots on target	4.6
4.7	Corners	3.8
2.33	Cards	2.00
16.3	Fouls	12.6
48	Possession %	44
2.41	xG	1.30
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ST Mirren	Metric	Rangers
0.80	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.06	Expected goals (xG)	2.37 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	7.20 (better)
8.60	Total shots	17.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.80 (better)
50.6	Possession %	56.2 (better)
405	Passes	449 (better)
	Tackles
14.20 (better)	Fouls	14.60
1.60	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

ST Mirren wins: 0
Draws: 1
Rangers wins: 4
Goals / game: 1.80
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 40%

ST Mirren v Rangers0–22026-11-07
Rangers v ST Mirren1–02026-09-09
ST Mirren v Rangers0–12026-03-15
Rangers v ST Mirren2–12025-12-30
ST Mirren v Rangers1–12025-08-24

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5