Dundee Utd v Motherwell

6th1–19th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dundee Utd		Motherwell
24	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
13	Corners	7
9	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
442	Passes	455
47%	Possession %	53%
1.95	xG	1.77

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Motherwell 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dundee Utd	35.5%	2.82	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-10.0
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.74	3.85 Betano	26.0%	+0.8
Match result	Motherwell	37.8%	2.65	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	+8.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.7%	1.30	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.3%	4.28	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.9%	1.93	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.1%	2.08	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+10.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.36	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-11.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+8.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.4%	1.77	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-8.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.6%	2.30	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dundee Utd v Motherwell: too close to call

Our model makes Dundee Utd 35% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 27% and Motherwell at 38%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Dundee Utd against 1.40 for Motherwell — almost nothing to Motherwell on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Dundee Utd and Motherwell
Dundee Utd		Motherwell
12	Played	13
4-5-3	W-D-L	3-4-6
1.42	Pts / game	1.00
1.42	Goals for / game	1.15
1.42	Goals against / game	1.62
50%	Over 2.5	54%
50%	BTTS	46%
25%	Clean sheets	23%
25%	Failed to score	38%
2-3-1	Home record	2-1-3
2-2-2	Away record	1-3-3
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dundee Utd · Motherwell

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	14.3
6.4	Shots on target	5.2
7.2	Corners	5.3
2.40	Cards	2.00
10.0	Fouls	12.5
47	Possession %	49
1.47	xG	1.76
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.0	Shots	16.5
5.2	Shots on target	6.0
7.0	Corners	6.2
2.00	Cards	2.67
12.2	Fouls	9.2
53	Possession %	51
1.43	xG	1.54
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dundee Utd	Metric	Motherwell
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.37	Expected goals (xG)	1.48 (better)
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.20
13.80	Total shots	14.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.60
45.4	Possession %	48.4 (better)
411	Passes	464 (better)
	Tackles
10.60	Fouls	10.00 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dundee Utd wins: 0
Draws: 2
Motherwell wins: 3
Goals / game: 1.80
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 20%

Dundee Utd v Motherwell1–12026-11-07
Motherwell v Dundee Utd3–02026-09-02
Motherwell v Dundee Utd2–02026-02-28
Dundee Utd v Motherwell0–02025-12-13
Motherwell v Dundee Utd2–02025-10-29

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5