Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5LDWLW4th2–5Falkirk won 5 of the last 5WWWWW3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Heart Of Midlothian
Falkirk
16
Shots
14
6
Shots on target
7
4
Corners
5
11
Fouls
20
1
Yellow cards
6
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
2
438
Passes
303
59%
Possession %
41%
2.01
xG
2.61
51%
24%
25%
1 · Heart Of MidlothianXFalkirk · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian 51%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Heart Of Midlothian
50.6%
1.98
1.87 Betano
53.5%
-2.9
Match result
Draw
24.2%
4.13
4.30 Betano
23.3%
+1.0
Match result
Falkirk
25.1%
3.98
5.00 William Hill
20.0%
+5.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.7%
1.24
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-0.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.3%
5.18
5.25 BetVictor
19.0%
+0.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.8%
1.73
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
+0.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.2%
2.37
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+3.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.4%
2.82
2.75 Bet365
36.4%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.6%
1.55
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.1%
1.69
1.75 Betfair
57.1%
+1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.9%
2.44
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
-3.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Heart Of Midlothian favoured against Falkirk
Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian 51% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 24% and Falkirk at 25%. The goal projection is 1.80 for Heart Of Midlothian against 1.21 for Falkirk — a substantial edge to Heart Of Midlothian on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 8%
2-0 8%
1-2 6%
This season
Season records for Heart Of Midlothian and Falkirk
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Heart Of Midlothian
Metric
Falkirk
1.25
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
2.75
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.18
Expected goals (xG)
1.43 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
5.20 (better)
15.25 (better)
Total shots
14.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25
Corners
5.40 (better)
46.3
Possession %
51.8 (better)
412 (better)
Passes
404
—
Tackles
—
11.25 (better)
Fouls
14.20
0.75
Offsides
0.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.75
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Heart Of Midlothian v 
Falkirk