Scottish Premiership · Preview

Scottish Premiership predictions: matchweek 11 (28 October 2026)

Every Scottish Premiership match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 21 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Scottish Premiership, matchweek 11: six matches, played on 28 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Celtic, 65% to beat Dundee Utd at home; the most evenly balanced game is ST Johnstone v Motherwell (ST Johnstone 36%, draw 28%, Motherwell 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Dundee v Kilmarnock, at 3.83; the tightest looks ST Mirren v Hibernian, at 2.44.

Going into the round, Celtic lead on 24 points, four points clear of Rangers, with Heart Of Midlothian third on 16. The bottom three are Motherwell (8), Kilmarnock (8), Hibernian (7).

The numbers this season

Scottish Premiership has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 54 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 56%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 39%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Aberdeen v FalkirkWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Aberdeen 40%, the draw 28% and Falkirk 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Aberdeen to win at 40%. Aberdeen are 7th on 11 points from 9; Falkirk are 9th on 9 points from 9. Aberdeen have won two of their last five; Falkirk have won two of their last five. Falkirk have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Celtic v Dundee UtdWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Celtic 65%, the draw 20% and Dundee Utd 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Celtic to win at 65%. Celtic are 1st on 24 points from 9; Dundee Utd are 6th on 12 points from 9. Celtic have won four of their last five; Dundee Utd have won two of their last five. Dundee Utd have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Dundee v KilmarnockWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Dundee 56%, the draw 20% and Kilmarnock 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.83 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 53%. Dundee are 4th on 14 points from 9; Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points from 9. Dundee have won two of their last five; Kilmarnock have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

Heart Of Midlothian v RangersWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian 35%, the draw 25% and Rangers 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Heart Of Midlothian are 3rd on 16 points from 9; Rangers are 2nd on 20 points from 9. Heart Of Midlothian have won two of their last five; Rangers are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Heart Of Midlothian have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

ST Johnstone v MotherwellWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes ST Johnstone 36%, the draw 28% and Motherwell 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Motherwell to win at 36%. ST Johnstone are 5th on 12 points from 9; Motherwell are 10th on 8 points from 9. ST Johnstone have won two of their last five; Motherwell have lost all of their last five.

ST Mirren v HibernianWed 28 Oct, 19:45

Our model makes ST Mirren 26%, the draw 28% and Hibernian 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. ST Mirren are 8th on 10 points from 9; Hibernian are 12th on 7 points from 9. ST Mirren have lost all of their last five; Hibernian are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Hibernian have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.