Dundee v Kilmarnock

5th3–112th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dundee		Kilmarnock
15	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	5
7	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
407	Passes	412
46%	Possession %	54%
2.28	xG	2.24

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 73%
Over 3.5: 53%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: Dundee 56%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.33 – 1.50

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Dundee	55.8%	1.79	1.98 Dafabet	50.5%	+5.3
Match result	Draw	20.4%	4.90	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-5.9
Match result	Kilmarnock	23.8%	4.19	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.8%	1.11	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+7.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.2%	9.85	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-9.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	73.5%	1.36	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+12.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	26.5%	3.77	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	-15.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	53.1%	1.88	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+15.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	46.9%	2.13	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-16.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.4%	1.42	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.6%	3.38	2.45 BetVictor	40.8%	-11.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dundee favoured against Kilmarnock

Our model makes Dundee 56% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 20% and Kilmarnock at 24%. The goal projection is 2.33 for Dundee against 1.50 for Kilmarnock — a substantial edge to Dundee on expected output. A combined 3.83 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 8%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 2-0 6%

This season

Season records for Dundee and Kilmarnock
Dundee		Kilmarnock
12	Played	13
5-2-5	W-D-L	2-3-8
1.42	Pts / game	0.69
1.50	Goals for / game	1.00
1.25	Goals against / game	2.23
67%	Over 2.5	62%
75%	BTTS	54%
17%	Clean sheets	15%
8%	Failed to score	38%
3-2-1	Home record	1-2-3
2-0-4	Away record	1-1-5
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dundee · Kilmarnock

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.4	Shots	13.8
5.6	Shots on target	3.8
6.0	Corners	5.5
1.60	Cards	2.50
11.0	Fouls	11.8
45	Possession %	48
1.53	xG	1.97
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.6	Shots	15.5
5.2	Shots on target	5.3
4.0	Corners	6.2
2.00	Cards	0.83
12.4	Fouls	9.7
55	Possession %	52
1.82	xG	1.90
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dundee	Metric	Kilmarnock
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.50 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.23
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
11.60 (better)	Total shots	11.25
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	4.80
38.2	Possession %	43.2 (better)
340	Passes	367 (better)
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	11.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.50	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dundee wins: 2
Draws: 2
Kilmarnock wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 80%

Dundee v Kilmarnock3–12026-10-28
Kilmarnock v Dundee3–12026-05-12
Kilmarnock v Dundee2–22026-04-11
Dundee v Kilmarnock2–12025-12-30
Kilmarnock v Dundee0–02025-08-23

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5