ST Mirren v Hibernian

8th1–110th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
ST Mirren		Hibernian
11	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	5
13	Fouls	14
5	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
347	Passes	490
42%	Possession %	58%
1.80	xG	1.42

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Hibernian 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.00 – 1.44

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

ST Mirren -0.5

3.45Bet365 · fair 3.10 · qualifies at 3.19+ · 1.16u

Why this price?

Back ST Mirren -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — ST Mirren must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 26% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.10. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.16 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: ST Mirren 1.00, Hibernian 1.44.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	ST Mirren	25.7%	3.90	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-2.5
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.59	3.75 Betano	26.7%	+1.2
Match result	Hibernian	46.5%	2.15	2.22 Dafabet	45.0%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.6%	1.42	1.25 BetVictor	80.0%	-9.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.4%	3.40	4.40 Betano	22.7%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.0%	2.27	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-13.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	56.0%	1.79	2.20 Betano	45.5%	+10.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.9%	4.36	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-9.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.1%	1.30	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+10.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	48.9%	2.05	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-11.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	51.1%	1.96	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Hibernian favoured against ST Mirren

Our model makes ST Mirren 26% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 28% and Hibernian at 46%. The goal projection is 1.00 for ST Mirren against 1.44 for Hibernian — a clear edge to Hibernian on expected output. A combined 2.44 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for ST Mirren and Hibernian
ST Mirren		Hibernian
13	Played	12
4-2-7	W-D-L	3-2-7
1.08	Pts / game	0.92
0.92	Goals for / game	1.25
1.69	Goals against / game	1.42
46%	Over 2.5	67%
38%	BTTS	75%
23%	Clean sheets	8%
38%	Failed to score	17%
2-2-3	Home record	0-1-5
2-0-4	Away record	3-1-2
L2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. ST Mirren · Hibernian

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	14.6
3.5	Shots on target	3.2
3.8	Corners	4.4
3.67	Cards	1.80
15.3	Fouls	12.2
52	Possession %	56
1.06	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	13.6
4.5	Shots on target	4.4
4.7	Corners	5.6
2.33	Cards	3.20
16.3	Fouls	15.6
48	Possession %	44
2.41	xG	1.30
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ST Mirren	Metric	Hibernian
0.40	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.12	Expected goals (xG)	1.23 (better)
	Big chances
3.20	Shots on target	4.40 (better)
12.00	Total shots	16.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	7.00 (better)
52.2	Possession %	57.4 (better)
461	Passes	495 (better)
	Tackles
13.20	Fouls	9.75 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

ST Mirren wins: 0
Draws: 2
Hibernian wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.25
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 50%

ST Mirren v Hibernian1–12026-10-28
Hibernian v ST Mirren2–02026-02-14
ST Mirren v Hibernian0–32025-11-08
Hibernian v ST Mirren1–12025-08-31

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5