ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5WDDLD7th2–2Motherwell won 1 of the last 5DWDLL9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
ST Johnstone
Motherwell
15
Shots
17
3
Shots on target
9
2
Corners
8
9
Fouls
15
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
548
Passes
424
56%
Possession %
44%
1.48
xG
1.53
36%
28%
36%
1 · ST JohnstoneXMotherwell · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Both score
52%
Model pick
Motherwell 36%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.28
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Draw
28.0%
3.57
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
+0.2
Match result
Motherwell
36.4%
2.75
3.05 Betano
32.8%
+3.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.37
1.28 Bet365
78.1%
-5.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
27.2%
3.67
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
46.7%
2.14
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
53.3%
1.88
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+3.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.2%
3.97
3.25 BetVictor
30.8%
-5.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.8%
1.34
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
+3.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.4%
1.91
1.70 William Hill
58.8%
-6.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.6%
2.10
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+6.8
Match result
ST Johnstone
35.6%
2.81
2.57 Betano
38.9%
-3.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
ST Johnstone v Motherwell: too close to call
Our model makes ST Johnstone 36% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 28% and Motherwell at 36%. The goal projection is 1.26 for ST Johnstone against 1.28 for Motherwell — almost nothing to Motherwell on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
ST Johnstone
Metric
Motherwell
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.40
1.29 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.16
—
Big chances *
—
3.60
Shots on target
4.00 (better)
8.60
Total shots
11.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.60
Corners
4.80 (better)
40.4
Possession %
54.6 (better)
375
Passes
537 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.40
Fouls
7.80 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.50
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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ST Johnstone v 
Motherwell