Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers

4th2–22nd

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Rangers
17	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	4
12	Fouls	20
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
332	Passes	387
47%	Possession %	53%
1.75	xG	2.26

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Rangers 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.60

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Heart Of Midlothian -0.25

2.68Bet365 · fair 2.49 · qualifies at 2.56+ · 1.16u

Why this price?

Back Heart Of Midlothian -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.68 with Bet365 — Heart Of Midlothian must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.49. The offered 2.68 implies only 37%, so the price is 7.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.16 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Heart Of Midlothian 1.47, Rangers 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Heart Of Midlothian	34.7%	2.88	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	+9.0
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.99	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	-0.6
Match result	Rangers	40.3%	2.48	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.6%	1.23	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.4%	5.42	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.1%	1.69	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.9%	2.44	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.7%	2.73	2.57 Betano	38.9%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.3%	1.58	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.9%	1.62	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.1%	2.62	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers: too close to call

Our model makes Heart Of Midlothian 35% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rangers at 40%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Heart Of Midlothian against 1.60 for Rangers — a slight edge to Rangers on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian		Rangers
12	Played	12
6-2-4	W-D-L	8-3-1
1.67	Pts / game	2.25
2.17	Goals for / game	1.75
1.83	Goals against / game	0.75
83%	Over 2.5	50%
75%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	0%
4-1-1	Home record	4-0-1
2-1-3	Away record	4-3-0
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Heart Of Midlothian · Rangers

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.0	Shots	18.2
5.6	Shots on target	7.0
4.4	Corners	7.0
2.20	Cards	2.00
11.4	Fouls	15.2
51	Possession %	56
1.92	xG	2.71
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	12.0
5.8	Shots on target	4.6
4.6	Corners	3.8
3.80	Cards	2.00
18.0	Fouls	12.6
49	Possession %	44
2.22	xG	1.30
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Heart Of Midlothian	Metric	Rangers
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
2.08 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.77
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	7.20 (better)
17.00	Total shots	18.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	6.80 (better)
54.2 (better)	Possession %	53.6
469 (better)	Passes	462
	Tackles
13.60 (better)	Fouls	14.25
2.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Heart Of Midlothian wins: 3
Draws: 1
Rangers wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.60
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 80%

Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers2–22026-10-28
Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers2–12026-05-04
Rangers v Heart Of Midlothian4–22026-02-15
Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers2–12025-12-21
Rangers v Heart Of Midlothian0–22025-09-13

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5