Celtic v Dundee Utd

1st2–26th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Celtic		Dundee Utd
29	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	5
13	Corners	5
12	Fouls	7
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
637	Passes	333
65%	Possession %	35%
1.63	xG	0.93

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Celtic 65%
Likely score: 2-0 10%
Expected goals: 2.22 – 0.99

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Celtic	64.7%	1.55	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-12.9
Match result	Draw	20.1%	4.98	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+5.8
Match result	Dundee Utd	15.3%	6.56	13.00 Betano	7.7%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.4%	1.20	1.12 Bet365	89.3%	-5.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.6%	6.03	8.50 Betfair	11.8%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.1%	1.61	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.9%	2.64	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+11.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.9%	2.51	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-12.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.1%	1.66	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+14.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Celtic favoured against Dundee Utd

Our model makes Celtic 65% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 20% and Dundee Utd at 15%. The goal projection is 2.22 for Celtic against 0.99 for Dundee Utd — a commanding edge to Celtic on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Celtic is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Celtic and Dundee Utd
Celtic		Dundee Utd
13	Played	12
10-1-2	W-D-L	4-5-3
2.38	Pts / game	1.42
2.15	Goals for / game	1.42
0.77	Goals against / game	1.42
54%	Over 2.5	50%
46%	BTTS	50%
38%	Clean sheets	25%
15%	Failed to score	25%
5-1-1	Home record	2-3-1
5-0-1	Away record	2-2-2
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Celtic · Dundee Utd

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
21.8	Shots	16.0
8.5	Shots on target	6.4
9.3	Corners	7.2
2.33	Cards	2.40
11.0	Fouls	10.0
60	Possession %	47
2.49	xG	1.47
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	18.0
3.2	Shots on target	5.2
2.5	Corners	7.0
2.00	Cards	2.00
10.7	Fouls	12.2
40	Possession %	53
1.18	xG	1.43
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Celtic	Metric	Dundee Utd
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.80	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.28 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.39
	Big chances
7.40 (better)	Shots on target	6.80
15.60 (better)	Total shots	15.20
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	7.80
55.8 (better)	Possession %	47.8
557 (better)	Passes	414
	Tackles
12.40 (better)	Fouls	12.60
1.40 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Celtic wins: 1
Draws: 1
Dundee Utd wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.25
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 50%

Celtic v Dundee Utd2–22026-10-28
Dundee Utd v Celtic2–02026-03-22
Celtic v Dundee Utd4–02026-01-10
Dundee Utd v Celtic2–12025-12-17

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5