Aberdeen v Falkirk

11th0–13rd

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aberdeen		Falkirk
15	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	4
14	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	0
380	Passes	466
45%	Possession %	55%
1.72	xG	1.08

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Aberdeen 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.19

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Aberdeen -0.5

1.98Bet365 · fair 1.83 · qualifies at 1.89+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Aberdeen -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Bet365 — Aberdeen must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.83. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Aberdeen 1.36, Falkirk 1.19.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.7%	1.34	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.3%	1.91	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.7%	2.10	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.8%	2.13	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.2%	1.88	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.3%	3.96	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-4.1
Match result	Aberdeen	40.1%	2.49	2.11 Dafabet	47.4%	-7.3
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.59	3.60 Betano	27.8%	+0.1
Match result	Falkirk	32.0%	3.12	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+6.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.9%	1.37	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.1%	3.69	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+2.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aberdeen favoured against Falkirk

Our model makes Aberdeen 40% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 28% and Falkirk at 32%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Aberdeen against 1.19 for Falkirk — a slight edge to Aberdeen on expected output. A combined 2.55 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Aberdeen and Falkirk
Aberdeen		Falkirk
12	Played	13
3-2-7	W-D-L	6-3-4
0.92	Pts / game	1.62
1.00	Goals for / game	1.54
1.50	Goals against / game	1.08
50%	Over 2.5	54%
33%	BTTS	62%
17%	Clean sheets	31%
58%	Failed to score	15%
2-1-4	Home record	3-0-3
1-1-3	Away record	3-3-1
L3	Streak	W5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aberdeen · Falkirk

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	12.8
4.4	Shots on target	5.2
7.2	Corners	4.0
1.00	Cards	2.33
12.6	Fouls	15.3
48	Possession %	46
1.58	xG	1.59
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	17.3
4.8	Shots on target	5.5
4.2	Corners	7.7
1.40	Cards	1.50
11.0	Fouls	10.7
52	Possession %	55
1.44	xG	1.88
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aberdeen	Metric	Falkirk
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.42 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.37
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
15.00 (better)	Total shots	12.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)	Corners	4.40
45.0 (better)	Possession %	44.0
393 (better)	Passes	376
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	15.80
2.33	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aberdeen wins: 0
Draws: 1
Falkirk wins: 3
Goals / game: 1.25
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 25%

Aberdeen v Falkirk0–12026-10-28
Aberdeen v Falkirk1–12026-03-14
Falkirk v Aberdeen1–02026-01-03
Aberdeen v Falkirk0–12025-08-31

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5