Aberdeen v Hibernian

11th0–410th

17:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Aberdeen		Hibernian
15	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	6
8	Corners	6
17	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
325	Passes	465
42%	Possession %	58%
0.99	xG	2.43

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 49%

Model pick: Hibernian 38%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Aberdeen	33.3%	3.00	2.65 Betano	37.7%	-4.4
Match result	Draw	28.9%	3.46	3.60 Betano	27.8%	+1.1
Match result	Hibernian	37.8%	2.65	2.90 Bet365	34.5%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.8%	1.43	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-7.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.2%	3.31	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	43.0%	2.32	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-9.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	49.4%	2.02	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-9.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.0%	1.76	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+8.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.1%	4.52	3.25 BetVictor	30.8%	-8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	77.9%	1.28	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	50.6%	1.98	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+5.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Aberdeen v Hibernian: too close to call

Our model makes Aberdeen 33% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 29% and Hibernian at 38%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Aberdeen against 1.25 for Hibernian — almost nothing to Hibernian on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Aberdeen and Hibernian
Aberdeen		Hibernian
12	Played	12
3-2-7	W-D-L	3-2-7
0.92	Pts / game	0.92
1.00	Goals for / game	1.25
1.50	Goals against / game	1.42
50%	Over 2.5	67%
33%	BTTS	75%
17%	Clean sheets	8%
58%	Failed to score	17%
2-1-4	Home record	0-1-5
1-1-3	Away record	3-1-2
L3	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Aberdeen · Hibernian

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	14.6
4.4	Shots on target	3.2
7.2	Corners	4.4
1.00	Cards	1.80
12.6	Fouls	12.2
48	Possession %	56
1.58	xG	1.47
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	13.6
4.8	Shots on target	4.4
4.2	Corners	5.6
1.40	Cards	3.20
11.0	Fouls	15.6
52	Possession %	44
1.44	xG	1.30
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Aberdeen	Metric	Hibernian
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.82 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.24
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.40
18.75 (better)	Total shots	12.80
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
50.5	Possession %	54.8 (better)
426	Passes	466 (better)
	Tackles
11.50 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.00	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.25 (better)	Yellow cards	1.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Aberdeen wins: 1
Draws: 1
Hibernian wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.60
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

Aberdeen v Hibernian0–42026-11-07
Hibernian v Aberdeen1–12026-09-19
Aberdeen v Hibernian2–02026-04-11
Hibernian v Aberdeen2–02025-12-30
Aberdeen v Hibernian1–22025-10-26

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5