Celtic v Kilmarnock

1st1–012th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Celtic		Kilmarnock
20	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	3
7	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
535	Passes	375
59%	Possession %	41%
2.29	xG	1.53

Over 1.5: 91%
Over 2.5: 77%
Over 3.5: 58%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Celtic 76%
Likely score: 2-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.99 – 1.05

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Celtic	76.1%	1.31	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-5.9
Match result	Kilmarnock	9.9%	10.13	16.00 Betano	6.3%	+3.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	91.5%	1.09	1.09 Betano	91.7%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.2%	1.61	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	+10.9
Match result	Draw	14.0%	7.13	9.00 Betfair	11.1%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	8.5%	11.71	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	76.9%	1.30	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	23.1%	4.33	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	57.6%	1.74	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	42.4%	2.36	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.8%	2.64	2.15 William Hill	46.5%	-8.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Celtic favoured against Kilmarnock

Our model makes Celtic 76% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 14% and Kilmarnock at 10%. The goal projection is 2.99 for Celtic against 1.05 for Kilmarnock — a commanding edge to Celtic on expected output. A combined 4.05 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 77% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Celtic is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 24% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 8%; 3-1 8%; 2-0 8%; 3-0 8%; 4-1 6%

This season

Season records for Celtic and Kilmarnock
Celtic		Kilmarnock
13	Played	13
10-1-2	W-D-L	2-3-8
2.38	Pts / game	0.69
2.15	Goals for / game	1.00
0.77	Goals against / game	2.23
54%	Over 2.5	62%
46%	BTTS	54%
38%	Clean sheets	15%
15%	Failed to score	38%
5-1-1	Home record	1-2-3
5-0-1	Away record	1-1-5
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Celtic · Kilmarnock

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
21.8	Shots	13.8
8.5	Shots on target	3.8
9.3	Corners	5.5
2.33	Cards	2.50
11.0	Fouls	11.8
60	Possession %	48
2.49	xG	1.97
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.8	Shots	15.5
3.2	Shots on target	5.3
2.5	Corners	6.2
2.00	Cards	0.83
10.7	Fouls	9.7
40	Possession %	52
1.18	xG	1.90
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Celtic	Metric	Kilmarnock
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.40
1.85 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.60
	Big chances
6.60 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
16.80 (better)	Total shots	11.80
	Touches in opp. box
6.60 (better)	Corners	5.20
53.0 (better)	Possession %	48.0
541 (better)	Passes	388
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	11.60 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Celtic wins: 5
Draws: 0
Kilmarnock wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.80
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 60%

Celtic v Kilmarnock1–02026-11-08
Kilmarnock v Celtic1–52026-08-09
Kilmarnock v Celtic2–32026-02-15
Celtic v Kilmarnock4–02025-11-09
Kilmarnock v Celtic1–22025-09-14

Scottish Premiership table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Celtic	13	10	1	2	+18	31	Celtic won 3 of the last 5
2	Rangers	12	8	3	1	+12	27	Rangers won 3 of the last 5
3	Falkirk	13	6	3	4	+6	21	Falkirk won 5 of the last 5
4	Heart Of Midlothian	12	6	2	4	+4	20	Heart Of Midlothian won 2 of the last 5
5	Dundee	12	5	2	5	+3	17	Dundee won 2 of the last 5
6	Dundee Utd	12	4	5	3	0	17	Dundee Utd won 2 of the last 5
7	ST Johnstone	13	4	5	4	-3	17	ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5
8	ST Mirren	13	4	2	7	-10	14	ST Mirren won 1 of the last 5
9	Motherwell	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Motherwell won 1 of the last 5
10	Hibernian	12	3	2	7	-2	11	Hibernian won 1 of the last 5
11	Aberdeen	12	3	2	7	-6	11	Aberdeen won 1 of the last 5
12	Kilmarnock	13	2	3	8	-16	9	Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5