Kilmarnock won 1 of the last 5LDLLW12th2–2ST Johnstone won 1 of the last 5WDDLD7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Kilmarnock
ST Johnstone
22
Shots
6
6
Shots on target
3
10
Corners
2
12
Fouls
10
3
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
3
Offsides
1
542
Passes
341
63%
Possession %
37%
3.39
xG
0.80
32%
25%
43%
1 · KilmarnockXST Johnstone · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
60%
Model pick
ST Johnstone 43%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.62
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Kilmarnock
31.7%
3.15
2.75 Bet365
36.4%
-4.6
Match result
Draw
25.3%
3.95
3.70 Betfair
27.0%
-1.7
Match result
ST Johnstone
43.0%
2.33
2.95 Dafabet
33.9%
+9.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.3%
1.25
1.23 Betano
81.3%
-1.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.7%
5.08
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.2%
1.75
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-1.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.8%
2.33
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.8%
2.88
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+0.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.2%
1.53
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.1%
1.66
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-1.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.9%
2.51
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-1.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
ST Johnstone favoured against Kilmarnock
Our model makes Kilmarnock 32% to win this Scottish Premiership fixture, with the draw at 25% and ST Johnstone at 43%. The goal projection is 1.36 for Kilmarnock against 1.62 for ST Johnstone — a clear edge to ST Johnstone on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kilmarnock
Metric
ST Johnstone
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.23
Expected goals (xG)
1.29 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
3.60
11.25 (better)
Total shots
8.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.80 (better)
Corners
2.60
43.2 (better)
Possession %
40.4
367
Passes
375 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.80
Fouls
11.40 (better)
1.25
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.80 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Kilmarnock v 
ST Johnstone